The question, I find, is not yet whether Iran will come for us guns blazing. They are not suicidal or stupid, as much as certain elements need them to look it. The question is first what this will provoke inside Iran.
First, Soleimani was their man, their warrior, the fellow on the recruiting posters. Yet there were spies all around him. How deep does the rot go? What do they do about it? What results from that?
Khamenei must hit us -- on principle and to cover his own ass -- but he also has to kill his own people at a high level. Who moves into their place?
Iran will think carefully about the scale of hitting us. They have to. The question is now whether that matters at all, and who will move up the line internally. Khamenei is not a good public politician and relies on his network in the military first.
Separately I'd like to remind you that the average person in the West would be shocked at their counterpart in Iran. They are an urbane and intelligent people, probably the most disposed in the region to the West.
Of course Trump hasn’t considered any of this. There’s the rub.
Anyway, it’s a gift to the Russians and Chinese. And when does Iran expel nuclear inspectors?
