Holy cow! Senior militia leaders killed in American strikes in Iraq, and could include Iran’s Qassem Soleimani or one of his top aides from Iraq. Beyond insane.
So far confirmed — the Pentagon is saying two senior operatives “linked to Iran” were targeted.
Iraqi TV claims that Qassem Sulaimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed.
If true, this is no doubt the most significant/consequential killing probably in a decade.
Iraqi TV claims that Qassem Sulaimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed.
If true, this is no doubt the most significant/consequential killing probably in a decade.
Whoa! Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi (iranian-backed popular mobilization forces) is reportedly confirming that its deputy and Qassem Sulaimani have been indeed killed in American strikes.
AFP Arabic is reporting that the PMUs have confirmed the killing of Iraq’s two most significant operatives in Iraq:
Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani, and militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani, and militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Iraqi official television is confirming
Iraqi TV confirms the killing of the Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani.
Security official tells AFP that 8 have been killed in an attack on the Baghdad airport. The PMUs is accusing Washington of being behind the attack that supposedly killed two of Iran’s most significant men.
Security official tells AFP that 8 have been killed in an attack on the Baghdad airport. The PMUs is accusing Washington of being behind the attack that supposedly killed two of Iran’s most significant men.
IF true, and it does seem true at this point, then the US has killed Iran’s top operative in Iraq and his Iraqi aide, about two months after the killing of the Iraqi leader of ISIS and his top Saudi aide.
Big picture, these events are not unrelated in terms of significance.
Big picture, these events are not unrelated in terms of significance.
Confirmed:
Iran's Soleimani and Iraq's Muhandis killed in air strike: militia spokesman | Reuters reuters.com/article/us-ira…
Iran's Soleimani and Iraq's Muhandis killed in air strike: militia spokesman | Reuters reuters.com/article/us-ira…
An American red line looks red long at last. Who would have thought?
Remember this Iraqi militant commander has long been involved in terrorism, before and after the US invasion of Iraq, but the US still worked with him, until he’s killed.
Remember this Iraqi militant commander has long been involved in terrorism, before and after the US invasion of Iraq, but the US still worked with him, until he’s killed.
Before he organized the storming of the US embassy in Baghdadi, he appeared on camera and one of his threatening statements: هيهات من الذلة never will we bow to humiliation.
Iran got too comfortable with the US predictable response.
• shot down a US drone.
• attacked Saudi oil facilities, unprecedented
• struck an American base, even if the victim was one contractor
• organized embassy storming
• Sulaimani still moved around feeling invincible
• shot down a US drone.
• attacked Saudi oil facilities, unprecedented
• struck an American base, even if the victim was one contractor
• organized embassy storming
• Sulaimani still moved around feeling invincible
All these developments happened within several months, and they happened because Iran knew the response of Americans and Iran apologists is that “we’re heading to war”.
None of that would have happened if red lines meant red lines. Iran’s response today may be to rethink that.
None of that would have happened if red lines meant red lines. Iran’s response today may be to rethink that.
Ahead of ourselves, but if the US stood its ground, this could be a game changer. This could backfire if deference and the US role in the region become a political football. You can already see what this is going to turn to.
Add to these events the fact that Iran is playing a BIG game in Syria. The finale of its historic project in the Middle East.
If it’s part of a deliberate process, the US has picked a good time to tell Iran time is up.
NOBODY expected the US would do it.
If it’s part of a deliberate process, the US has picked a good time to tell Iran time is up.
NOBODY expected the US would do it.
Not commitment, its approach.
Iran has overplayed its hand. Simple as that. This could backfire big time for it, moving forward. Remember that this is outside their soil.
Iran has overplayed its hand. Simple as that. This could backfire big time for it, moving forward. Remember that this is outside their soil.
Equally interesting, but still unconfirmed, is that several leaders of the Iranian-backed militia al-Hashd al-Shaabi have reportedly been “arrested” in Iraq. This would make this a whole new level of operation.
The Ring
If you followed the reactions in the Middle East to @realDonaldTrump’s election, you’ll remember the fears he would pull off something like what happened today in Iraq.
It was 2 extremes, “this was the time for big changes in the region” or “this is terrifyingly unpredictable”
It was 2 extremes, “this was the time for big changes in the region” or “this is terrifyingly unpredictable”
In an interview, the deputy leader (the de facto leader) of Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi about his relationship to Iran’s top spymaster Qassem Sulaimani.
He responded: the relation of a soldier to his commander
He responded: the relation of a soldier to his commander
The site of the US attack
Photos reportedly from the aftermath
The coming weeks will determine who wins this escalation. Iran was lionized by the lack of response & the knowledge that everyone will be alarmist about sustained escalation. Overplayed its hands. But a few things to watch:
Iran may revert to old ways of conducting its business; this week, it went all in, knowing/suspecting nobody would do anything, by sending its “men” to storm the embassy & showing their faces. It wanted to send a powerful & bold message. The response was catastrophic & unexpected
That was the definition of arrogance and overplaying one’s hands. Nobody expected the US to do anything, some even thought the US will have no choice but to leave Iraq. That was, and remains, extremely plausible.
But the US killed the one symbol of Iran’s project in the region.
But the US killed the one symbol of Iran’s project in the region.
There is no question that Iran got really, really comfy. And it was right, until it wasn’t. Again, the US policy under two administration started to settle around the idea of Iran acting with impunity; that defined and informed the anti-ISIS coalition’s operations since 2014.
The message certainly reached Iran, and I’m sure its leaders are now wondering if this could cross into their borders if they do anything further. But then, Iran has options.
What will Sadr & Sistani do next? There is otherwise momentum against Iran’s agents in Iraq.
What will Sadr & Sistani do next? There is otherwise momentum against Iran’s agents in Iraq.
If the two (*seriously*) mobilize against the US, then Iran may be happy to lay low & wait for another chance.
If everyone realizes Iran has been running things around the embassy & the pro-change protesters lately, then the two may condemn without serious mobilization.
If everyone realizes Iran has been running things around the embassy & the pro-change protesters lately, then the two may condemn without serious mobilization.
The second scenario could build on an ongoing movement in Iraq, agitation against the government and Iranian tools in the country.
Sadr and Sistani might pay lip-service (they have to condemn the US but that’s not the same as mobilziating against it, in favor of Iran’s proxies).
Sadr and Sistani might pay lip-service (they have to condemn the US but that’s not the same as mobilziating against it, in favor of Iran’s proxies).
So, what I’m trying to say: things could really turn against Iran, not just in terms of deterrence but also the popular momentum against it. Yet Iran could also use this to kill the recent momentum against the corrupt/failing government & Iranian proxies in control of Baghdad.
Because this is (at least temporarily) emboldening those in Baghdad who always think they have to play for Iran’s team or be on its good side
One of the scenarios above can be clear pretty soon....
This is what I’m talking about — Iraqis are celebrating the killing of Iran’s Qassem Sulaimani, and the commentator is saying: “this is the [payback] for all the martyrs” (protesters killed by pro-Iran militias in Baghdad) Amazing
Very important to say that Iran’s aggressive behavior in recent months was a result of the biting economic sanctions. It became anxious as pressure increased against it, and its acts (mentioned here) are symptomatic of that anxiety. In a twisted sense, the sanctions were working:
You wonder about how Iraqis feel about this huge development? Seeing a mix of cheering & warning/threating of war.
But most seem to be cheering the killing of Iran’s top operatives in Iraq. The reason is that it happened in the context of the anti-government protests.
But most seem to be cheering the killing of Iran’s top operatives in Iraq. The reason is that it happened in the context of the anti-government protests.
Circulating...
Pentagon: 🇺🇸
“At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.”
“At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.”
Pentagon: 🇺🇸
“This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans. The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world.”
“This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans. The United States will continue to take all necessary action to protect our people and our interests wherever they are around the world.”
Pentagon 🇺🇸:
“General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.”
“General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.”
Pentagon 🇺🇸:
“General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”
“General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”
Pentagon 🇺🇸:
“[General Soleimani] had orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months – including the attack on December 27th – culminating in the death and wounding of additional American and Iraqi personnel.”
“[General Soleimani] had orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months – including the attack on December 27th – culminating in the death and wounding of additional American and Iraqi personnel.”
Pentagon 🇺🇸:
“General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week.”
“General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week.”
Remember that General Qassem Sulaimani had a lot of blood on his hand in Syria, and beyond. He arrogantly showed up in almost every big battle to make Iran’s expanding project in the region. He’s a hero to many evil people in the region. This is truly the end of an era. #2020
Remember that General Qassem Sulaimani also had a lot of blood on his hand in Syria, and beyond. He arrogantly showed up in almost every big battle to mark Iran’s expanding project in the ME. He’s a hero to many evil people in the region. This is truly the end of an era. #2020
Qassem Soleimani was an evil man, and represented an evil project in the Middle East. His project was to pit people against each other to create filthy loyalists, who would kill their “own people” to preserve Someilani’s project. Good riddance.
The moment #Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani and Iraq’s Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were struck.
Btw this part of the Pentagon’s statement is remarkable (too many people thought the killing could have been a mistake, wasn’t intended. But this confirms the targeting was deliberate and the president approved it, much like the killing of Baghdadi.)
Iran’s government in Arabic:
“Goodbye, and our meeting all will be with Hussain.”
“Goodbye, and our meeting all will be with Hussain.”
The more I think about this, the more significant it sounds. The man was a rare commodity & I don’t think Iran could find another person to glue its proxies together *this effectively*. Again a true end of an era, akin to Saddam fall &, similarly, much will depend on what follows
It won’t be as simple as Iran sending another operative to resume business. Think beyond Iraq. Yes in Iraq, Iran will be able to count on many allies to maintain its ability to steer things. But this is a critical moment if you think of Iraq but also the project beyond Iraq.
Take Syria. It’s bad timing for Iran to lose General Qassem Soleimani. If Iran has a few more years to replicate the Iraq scenario, he would have been central to this project. Assad still has key areas to recapture, Turkey increasingly assertive, and Russia wants to control Syria
This sounds like a game changer. The opportunities for Iran in Syria are many times bigger if combined with consolidation in Iraq & Lebanon. We’ve seen glimpses of what Iran can/want to do, lately. Its ability to capture Syria is now weakened.
There is always a risk in making statements like this, but it’s Twitter (the scribbles before the first draft of history)..
January 2, 2020 will be remembered as the time Iran overplayed its hands and burnt them. Its ability to carve out more of the Middle East will weaken.
January 2, 2020 will be remembered as the time Iran overplayed its hands and burnt them. Its ability to carve out more of the Middle East will weaken.
I’ve just seen this tweet. The arrogance 👆
[the Iranian regime talks a lot about the Great Satan and arrogance. That’s projection.]
[the Iranian regime talks a lot about the Great Satan and arrogance. That’s projection.]
Well-said: Qassem Soleimani tried to expel ISIS from Tikrit without the US. He failed. The Iraqis had to invite the US to finish the job, which they did very quickly.
The emotional Iraqis are happy, the wise pundits are worried. :s
One of the most important statements came in:
Notorious militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s statement is generic & weak, if not restrained. Details in next tweet:
Notorious militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s statement is generic & weak, if not restrained. Details in next tweet:
Sadr’s statement:
• offers condolences to Iran for the “martyrdom” of General Soleimani, which targeted resistance & jihad
• calls for all “disciplined” militias, incl. dormant Mahdi Army & Promised Day Legion, to be on standby
• hopes Iraq to avoid dangers & tribulations
• offers condolences to Iran for the “martyrdom” of General Soleimani, which targeted resistance & jihad
• calls for all “disciplined” militias, incl. dormant Mahdi Army & Promised Day Legion, to be on standby
• hopes Iraq to avoid dangers & tribulations
Two parts of the statement are telling
1) notorious militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr takes a jab at what he once called “imprudent” (or reckless) militias, saying he as a leader of the “nationalist Iraqi resistance” & forces loyal to him, “from the patriot & disciplined ones”
1) notorious militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr takes a jab at what he once called “imprudent” (or reckless) militias, saying he as a leader of the “nationalist Iraqi resistance” & forces loyal to him, “from the patriot & disciplined ones”
2) Muqtada al-Sadr, after offering condolences to Iran & vowing to continue, asks for restraint, saying he hopes for Iraq to avoid escalation and dangers. “I ask everyone to exercise wisdom & shrewdness”. He frames mobilization of forces in defensive terms “to protect iraq.”
Sadr’s statement is pretty generic, I‘d say. Nothing reminiscent of the old times.
He’s presenting himself as the leader of the patriotic forces, distinguishing himself from the forces that led to developments in the past days.
I expected that. (He didn’t even mention the US)
He’s presenting himself as the leader of the patriotic forces, distinguishing himself from the forces that led to developments in the past days.
I expected that. (He didn’t even mention the US)
Proof that doomsday alarmism by pundits & anti-Trump politicians isn’t warranted. Those are Iran’s best allies, more than its Iraqi allies. They embolden Iran & ironically make escalation likely.
For now Iraqis are celebrating still, or staying out of it:
For now Iraqis are celebrating still, or staying out of it:
Iraqi PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi issues a strongly-worded condemnation of the US, calls the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani one of "two symbols", and says the attack was an attack on Iraq since the Iranian general's close aide was an Iraqi government official:
Ironically the strongest words came not from the Iraqi clerics Sadr and Sistani but from the Iraqi prime minister.
He condemned the US & called for a special session to organize the appropriate response.
Both clerics called for restraint. #iran #iraq #US #QassemSoleimani
He condemned the US & called for a special session to organize the appropriate response.
Both clerics called for restraint. #iran #iraq #US #QassemSoleimani
#Iraq Grand Ayatollah Sistani’s statement:
• Events are accelerating
• condemns the US attack in Qa’im, then the embassy storming, and the killing of #QassemSoleimani & other heroes
• “flagrant aggression”
• Iraq is facing the most dangerous turn
• self-restraint & wisdom
• Events are accelerating
• condemns the US attack in Qa’im, then the embassy storming, and the killing of #QassemSoleimani & other heroes
• “flagrant aggression”
• Iraq is facing the most dangerous turn
• self-restraint & wisdom
Indeed, the alarmism about this now seems to be just crazy.
The successor of #QassemSoleimani says they’re not going to rush a response:
“Be patient and wait a little. Soon you will see the remains and bodies of people who commit great evil sprawled across the lands of the Middle East”
“Be patient and wait a little. Soon you will see the remains and bodies of people who commit great evil sprawled across the lands of the Middle East”
The US will receive a crushing response over the assassination of #QassemSoleimani, says #Iran’s defense minister.
Yes, as been saying. The problem with this inflated alarmism is that it’s always impulsive and not based on a close look into reality. But it comes with a cost, like emboldening Iran as it had done before:
