We are going to try to make clear what happened today in London.
Johnson came to the House with a deal that is almost unquestionably worse than May's, both politically (his agreement to EU standards for a chance at a trade deal, capitulation on Ireland, etc.) and practically. It leaves future arrangements even more vague.
Nevertheless his back is to the wall, and he was counting on winning at the wire. The civil war would come later, with Europe in the distance, when diametrically opposed MPs realized they'd been promised the world and lost.
The House denied Johnson his day at the great man. NOT, as some would have it, in an effort to "thwart the people," but to implement the deal responsibly. The deal requires new legislation, and there is no way to pass it all before October 31.
Johnson is now legally required to ask for a three-month delay. For all his refusal to "negotiate," there is no negotiation. He must ask. Europe can refuse. I doubt they will.
Johnson could not deny a good-faith extension without being dragged into court.
The point is to prevent even the smallest chance of "crashing out" on October 31. If the necessary legislation is not passed, that could happen. This is both recognition of the enormous task at hand and lack of trust in Johnson.
Johnson still means to put his deal to the House next week. (If the deal passed, any extension would become moot.) The Speaker is reserving judgment on whether to allow the government this, as the will of the House is clear.
Again, in short, it is not a Leave/Remain issue. We are long past that. It is between MPs who want it the hell over with and those who realize the trouble has barely started.
