Before the referendum, a good friend (h/t Aaron Khan) kept insisting that the question should not have been leave or remain, but rather what sort of relationship does the UK want to have with the EU (and the rest of the world). Thread. 1/7
Much water has now passed under the bridge. The UK has decided (via the Ref and GEs) that it will leave the EU. But... it is scarcely begun to confront the questions and challenges inherent in forging the future relationship deal. 2/7
The Leave campaign promised the best deal in history. Johnson is in favour of having his cake and eating it too. In the year ahead, these promises will collide with hard reality. 3/7
The key choice vis-a-vis the EU is between membership of the single market; frictionless (or near frictionless) access to that market (via an FTA with strong level playing field conditions); a much weaker FTA; or trade on WTO terms. 4/7
The extent of alignment with the EU (and its regulatory orbit) will affect the ability of the UK to strike good trade deals with other states (eg with the US). 5/7
The priority for the EU, the US, and all other potential partners is, unsurprisingly, their own (perceived) interest. Where the UK is weak, they see opportunities. And, despite some of the rhetoric, we will need them more than they need us. Size matters. 6/7
The choices ahead are difficult. The 2019 GE affords Johnson almost unconstrained power to make them as he sees fit. Leaving the single market will cause huge disruption. 4 years on from start of 2016, the case for that rupture has yet to be made. 7/7
