Thread/Rant on #Lebanon economy:
(1/X)
As we plunge deeper into economic crisis, it is becoming apparent that the response of the political class is simply "do nothing!” and continue with their old ways, unwilling to unlearn, re-learn and embrace change
So what else can we do?
(1/X)
As we plunge deeper into economic crisis, it is becoming apparent that the response of the political class is simply "do nothing!” and continue with their old ways, unwilling to unlearn, re-learn and embrace change
So what else can we do?
(2/X)
The truth is that we’re not going to make it if we don’t spark paradigm change in the Lebanese economy, and instead of a revolution that is all about “resisting power”, have a revolution of “building power”
The truth is that we’re not going to make it if we don’t spark paradigm change in the Lebanese economy, and instead of a revolution that is all about “resisting power”, have a revolution of “building power”
(3/X)
In Lebanon, the system is so corrupted that it’s self-terminating. The best way to go forward is to do as Bucky fuller advises:
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
In Lebanon, the system is so corrupted that it’s self-terminating. The best way to go forward is to do as Bucky fuller advises:
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
(4/X)
Far from financial experts who push for traditional “new government”, “Cedre” & “debt restructuring” solutions - all just first steps to alleviate the downside but not really solve the problem - I'd like to talk about more individual responsibilities & long-term solutions
Far from financial experts who push for traditional “new government”, “Cedre” & “debt restructuring” solutions - all just first steps to alleviate the downside but not really solve the problem - I'd like to talk about more individual responsibilities & long-term solutions
(5/X)
Economics is not about numbers & plans but about human interaction; it’s about people sharing resources, creating sustainable change, innovating, taking advantage of opportunities, failing & re-correcting for system errors that most often are due of government involvement
Economics is not about numbers & plans but about human interaction; it’s about people sharing resources, creating sustainable change, innovating, taking advantage of opportunities, failing & re-correcting for system errors that most often are due of government involvement
(6/X)
The free market is, as Friedrich August von Hayek put it, a “spontaneous order”.
A "Laissez-faire” market economy lets individuals and entrepreneurs freely choose how they want to cooperate in the social division of labor, and consumer choose themselves what gets created
The free market is, as Friedrich August von Hayek put it, a “spontaneous order”.
A "Laissez-faire” market economy lets individuals and entrepreneurs freely choose how they want to cooperate in the social division of labor, and consumer choose themselves what gets created
(7/X)
Ludwig von Mises says "Every government intervention creates unintended consequences which lead to calls for more government interventions”
The negative feedback loop was caused by the state thinking the LBP/USD peg is best, instead of letting the market decide its rate
Ludwig von Mises says "Every government intervention creates unintended consequences which lead to calls for more government interventions”
The negative feedback loop was caused by the state thinking the LBP/USD peg is best, instead of letting the market decide its rate
(8/X)
The intervention led to banks giving high-interest depositor money to BDL instead of loaning them back to the private sector, thus discouraged entrepreneurship & growth investment
The control of interest rates by BDL also distorted the price of money & generated the crash
The intervention led to banks giving high-interest depositor money to BDL instead of loaning them back to the private sector, thus discouraged entrepreneurship & growth investment
The control of interest rates by BDL also distorted the price of money & generated the crash
(9/X)
We must now choose between forced government austerity & real bottom-up economic growth
We must now choose between oppressive party patronage & youth-driven entrepreneurship
It's not our fault we have inherited a debt that we need to close, but it's our responsibility!
We must now choose between forced government austerity & real bottom-up economic growth
We must now choose between oppressive party patronage & youth-driven entrepreneurship
It's not our fault we have inherited a debt that we need to close, but it's our responsibility!
(10/X)
As Murray Bookchin wrote, “The revolutionary not only attacks the forms created by the legacy of domination, but also improvises new forms of liberation which take their poetry from the future.”
The warmongers are dying, Generation Y should come into power in a new way
As Murray Bookchin wrote, “The revolutionary not only attacks the forms created by the legacy of domination, but also improvises new forms of liberation which take their poetry from the future.”
The warmongers are dying, Generation Y should come into power in a new way
(11/X)
I am advocating a lot more entrepreneurship and startups, & for economic resources (...money & people) to be freed up and used more appropriately by founders
Entrepreneurs are the ones who will drive the free market’s engine forward, & build the new with their own hands
I am advocating a lot more entrepreneurship and startups, & for economic resources (...money & people) to be freed up and used more appropriately by founders
Entrepreneurs are the ones who will drive the free market’s engine forward, & build the new with their own hands
(12/X)
"Your freedom is not a gift received from the State or from leader", as Albert Camus says, but "a possession to be won every day by the effort of each."
I want you to imagine how much potential we have within, and what we can bring to the world with our unique insights
"Your freedom is not a gift received from the State or from leader", as Albert Camus says, but "a possession to be won every day by the effort of each."
I want you to imagine how much potential we have within, and what we can bring to the world with our unique insights
(13/X) What makes the "startup" one of the primary vehicles for creating the future is that it is “founder-led” — someone hell-bent on a vision
Through their scale and marketing power, local companies can achieve what other movements have never achieved, & change a whole society
Through their scale and marketing power, local companies can achieve what other movements have never achieved, & change a whole society
(14/X)
The banking/currency/debt crises can potentially be fixed by the free-market:
a) Incentivizing existing businesses to invest in growth/innovation and new startups to create high-quality products/services that can be exported, thereby fixing our trade deficit
The banking/currency/debt crises can potentially be fixed by the free-market:
a) Incentivizing existing businesses to invest in growth/innovation and new startups to create high-quality products/services that can be exported, thereby fixing our trade deficit
(15/X)
b) Local creditors investing in loans to the productive economy instead of government, which on the longer-term leads to increasing GDP and state tax revenues, plus help in offloading civil servants to the private sector, & remove the link between jobs & state clientelism
b) Local creditors investing in loans to the productive economy instead of government, which on the longer-term leads to increasing GDP and state tax revenues, plus help in offloading civil servants to the private sector, & remove the link between jobs & state clientelism
(16/X)
c)Bringing people’s trust and confidence back in the banks. I think the best way to do this is by starting to offer business loans (The reason I personally don’t hate my bank today, is because they have given me 200M worth of educational loans that got my career started)
c)Bringing people’s trust and confidence back in the banks. I think the best way to do this is by starting to offer business loans (The reason I personally don’t hate my bank today, is because they have given me 200M worth of educational loans that got my career started)
(17/X)
Lebanese people also need to relearn how to invest (other than land & deposits)
Our economy cannot continue with a pre-2019 mindset that the state is responsible for investing in the country’s progress (they've spent $100B+ & gotten us nowhere better during last 25 yrs)
Lebanese people also need to relearn how to invest (other than land & deposits)
Our economy cannot continue with a pre-2019 mindset that the state is responsible for investing in the country’s progress (they've spent $100B+ & gotten us nowhere better during last 25 yrs)
(18/X)
High-income groups & expats must invest in local companies instead of keeping their money in the banks
The future needs risk-taking entrepreneurs and investors; the money is there. $150Billion of deposits stuck in the system - imagine the future we can build with that!
High-income groups & expats must invest in local companies instead of keeping their money in the banks
The future needs risk-taking entrepreneurs and investors; the money is there. $150Billion of deposits stuck in the system - imagine the future we can build with that!
(19/X)
Invested properly, these can generate 3x returns which is $450Billion, wherein taxes will be $70Billion+ of state revenues we can re-use once the state is shrunk and cleaned
But I must be surely crazy: Invest now? In this current crisis situation?
Invested properly, these can generate 3x returns which is $450Billion, wherein taxes will be $70Billion+ of state revenues we can re-use once the state is shrunk and cleaned
But I must be surely crazy: Invest now? In this current crisis situation?
(20/X)
Mark Spitznagel shows, in his book The DAO of capital, that following a severe market crash, the simplest strategy would be to buy. This is a common contrarian investment strategy
The Austrian investor waits for corrections made inevitable by government error & buys low
Mark Spitznagel shows, in his book The DAO of capital, that following a severe market crash, the simplest strategy would be to buy. This is a common contrarian investment strategy
The Austrian investor waits for corrections made inevitable by government error & buys low
(21/X)
Warren Buffet, who invested his way out of the 2008 economic crisis, says:
“Bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of [the country's] future at a marked-down price”
Also,
“Be fearful when others are greedy, & be greedy when others are fearful”
Warren Buffet, who invested his way out of the 2008 economic crisis, says:
“Bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of [the country's] future at a marked-down price”
Also,
“Be fearful when others are greedy, & be greedy when others are fearful”
(22/X)
This financial strategy aims to "resist the temptation of falling in despair after a loss." It is focused more on the future than on the current moment.
Investors should be psychologically capable to pursue it when others are stuck in now & worried abt immediate profits
This financial strategy aims to "resist the temptation of falling in despair after a loss." It is focused more on the future than on the current moment.
Investors should be psychologically capable to pursue it when others are stuck in now & worried abt immediate profits
(23/X)
This new free-market system is to be built by each us with courage and vision
"The hardest thing is facing yourself. It's easier to
shout 'Revolution!' & 'Power to the People!' than
it is to look at yourself & try & find what's real
inside you & what isn't" - John Lennon
This new free-market system is to be built by each us with courage and vision
"The hardest thing is facing yourself. It's easier to
shout 'Revolution!' & 'Power to the People!' than
it is to look at yourself & try & find what's real
inside you & what isn't" - John Lennon
(24/X) Productivity, competition & innovation are critical for sustainable growth.
Our values and lifestyles have changed dramatically as the revolution showed. We should invest in businesses where everything is done for the human spirit, not half-assed like in government.
Our values and lifestyles have changed dramatically as the revolution showed. We should invest in businesses where everything is done for the human spirit, not half-assed like in government.
(25/X)
It will take several years to payoff, but win-win outcome will definitely arise. Growth is ours for the taking!
If you'd like to read more about my views on "Creating The Future", I wrote a 32,000-word essay series on Medium in 2019 about technology & entrepreneurship
It will take several years to payoff, but win-win outcome will definitely arise. Growth is ours for the taking!
If you'd like to read more about my views on "Creating The Future", I wrote a 32,000-word essay series on Medium in 2019 about technology & entrepreneurship
