I can't pull my mind away from the horrifying loss of life and land in 🇦🇺. Climate politics in Oz have been insane for decades. (The insanity gets a full chapter in my book). Will these fires change anything? Can they undermine the climate skeptics in power? A short 🧵1/ 
On the surface of it, it's hard to be hopeful. Current PM Morrison refuses to acknowledge that climate change is happening and wants to expand coal production. Here he is, no joke, bringing a lump of it into the Australian parliament. 2/
Kind of like that time when Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe threw a snowball inside the US Senate to disprove climate change. It was snowing outside, you see. 3/
Australian PM Morrison is just the latest in a line of political leaders tied to what Guy Pearse described as the "greenhouse mafia". Close ties between coal and the Liberal party have smothered climate reforms for decades. 4/
abc.net.au/4corners/the-g…
abc.net.au/4corners/the-g…
But the skeptics have not always been ascendent. In 2011, the country passed a landmark carbon price. Problem is - the country also became the first major country to repeal its carbon price in 2014. How did that happen? 5/
In brief: 3 become PM and tried for climate deal with opposition's 1. But 1 lost job to 2 for being pro-climate. Then 3 lost job to 4. 4 passed a carbon price, but then lost PM job to 3, who lost election to 2, who repealed reforms, before losing PM job to 1. Phew. 6/
This time in plain English. Politicians rarely change their minds about climate change. Reforms come and go with shifts in leadership. And not just shifts in party control of gvt. It's almost as important who within a party is at the party's helm. 7/
Factions in both the Australian left and right have both supported and opposed climate reforms. Former senior Australian Labor leaders are prominent climate skeptics. And there are politicians inside the Liberal party who want climate action. 8/
That is what initially sunk Malcolm Turnbull (individual 1 above). He lost the Liberal leadership by a 1-vote margin to climate antagonist Tony Abbott when he insisted his party embrace climate policy. Later, as PM, Abbott oversaw repeal of the country's carbon price. 9/
Sidenote: Abbot needed repeal votes from the Palmer United Party, led by eccentric mining magnate Clive Palmer, whose claims to fame include an effort to build the Titanic II and an eponymous dinosaur them park called Palmersaurus. 10/
Wilder yet is that Palmer was in the midst of lawsuit over unpaid *carbon taxes* associated with his Queensland nickel mines. He'd refused to pay claiming the country's carbon price was unconstitutional. Then he got elected to gvt and helped repeal it 11/ sbs.com.au/news/carbon-ta…
See, there is too much craziness. It's easy to get distracted The point: In the end, Morrison and the climate skeptics aren't going to change their mind despite the tragic bushfires. I don't think we're going to see a "Nixon Goes to China" moment in climate policymaking. 12/
This is not surprising. Climate denialism is rooted in material interests. When you profit from coal, it's difficult to see the burning forest for the trees. You will hang onto almost any other explanation for the turmoil around you. Even as your country burns to the ground. 13/
Already, right-wing media is pushing wild conspiracies that Australian environmentalists are to blame for the fires. . It's a lot like how Bolsonaro blamed environmentalists for the Amazon burning down. 14/
I've found the same with my research on California wildfires. Experiencing climate change makes people who already care about the issue more committed, but it doesn't change the minds of skeptics. Why would it? They don't experience the event *as* climate-related. 15/
So we'll need new political leadership. A change in gvt or in party leader. The better news: there are reserves of climate support on the left - and even the right - around the world, including in 🇦🇺. These advocates can't ascend to power quickly enough 16/
Anyhow, this barely scratches the surface of the crazy world of Australian climate politics. Much more in my book, which you can pre-order here mitpress.mit.edu/books/carbon-c…. And more wonky detail in future 🧵s. May all people and living beings get through these fires. -FIN
PS: I'd also recommend some great takes on Australia out there, including in thoughtful pieces by @yayitsrob theatlantic.com/science/archiv… and @dwallacewells nymag.com/intelligencer/….
