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Yesterday, we had services (Markit data) for the Eurozone & the USA 🇺🇸🇪🇺 higher while China softened 🇨🇳.

Let's look compare services & manufacturing. In China, they go together, which make sense as manufacturing spills over the service confidence (Caixin) 👇🏻.

What about Europe?
In Europe, the divergence b/n manu & services WIDENED (meaning manu stuck in low gear while services stabilize at expansion mode).

Why? Could it be that manufacturing is TRADEABLE & reflects global slowdown & auto while services are NON-TRADEABLE?

EU fundamentals strong? 🧐
Using ISM data (US service ISM out tonight), the trend is the same that of the Eurozone, meaning services & manufacturing WIDENED.

So, does this reflect USA fundamentals? As in non-tradeable sectors doing well v manufacturing which reflects GLOBAL DEMAND as manu tradeable?
🧐🇺🇸
Notice that for all these charts, I used double Y-axis but key is that the scale is the same for both sides. When you read a chart, make sure you see that the scale is the same & if it is not, it has to be indicated otherwise author tries to manipulate perception...
#charttips 🤓
Comparison between USA, Eurozone & China manufacturing 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇨🇳

Notice that US & EUR lines trend together downward while China diverge for an UPSWING (Caixin data).

Question: Are we positioned for a cyclical upswing of manufacturing in the US?

@Lavorgnanomics thinks so 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
@Lavorgnanomics What about services? Chart below shows services converging for the USA, Eurozone & China (US service ISM tonight) w/ China trending lower while Eur & US up.
Markit:
China 🇨🇳 52.5
Eurozone 🇪🇺52.8
USA 🇺🇸52.8

ISM services tonight & markets expect a bounce to 54.5 for Dec from 53.9
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Are you ready? This is our last lunch-time reading together before 2020. This one will be fun & short I promise.

Let's follow the money together, this time foreign direct investment (FDI) & we'll read @UNCTAD investment monitor together.

Here we go: global investment flows 👇🏻
@UNCTAD Remember what I said about how despite cutting rates by current account deficit (CAD) economies in Asia, credit transmission is clogged!

Why? Well, credit & fund flows ebbed (portfolio equity flows down & now u see that FDI is DOWN too 🥶

Regional contribution to H1 2019 FDI👇🏻
@UNCTAD What does this chart show?
a) Investment recovered somewhat from abysmal H1 2018 (read pinned tweet on impact of US tax reforms on GLOBAL FDI)
b) While global FDI recovered, MOSTLY WENT TO THE USA 🇺🇸 & to a lesser extent Europe
c) Sadly, the economies that need (EM) FDI are DOWN
Read 8 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
House has voted to impeach Trump for abuse of power. A big deal & expected but unlikely to effectively remove him from office as depends on the Senate & likely to be no.

While this defines Trump & 2020 itself, the question is whether the Democrats have an electable candidate?👈🏻
If u spend too much time defining the OPPOSITION (Trump) but not yourself, then when voters have to show up for u, they have to ask themselves, WHAT I AM VOTING FOR?

Against Trump? As in anyone? Or FOR a policy, future, direction?

Jeremy Corbyn showed that u need FOR vs AGAINST
As in, as much as they are NOT IN LOVE W/ BORIS, they didn't like Jeremy Corbyn or his party's view regarding DELUSION OF BREXIT. People had already PRICED in Brexit, as in they respected the referendum & wanted to move on.

It's the elites that COULDN'T. They held on via op eds.
Read 7 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
So wrote an op ed 👇🏻 (which is more like my begging Indonesia to reconsider its policy regarding manufacturing & FDI) on the fact that Indonesia needs to wake up & was very excited by news of Pres Jokowi announcing reforms (Jan?)

So far, the push by Indonesia is to move inward👈🏻
Allow me to explain. For example, the president aims to END PETROCHEMICAL IMPORTS in the next 4 years. So? Barito soars 200% on strong demand for plastics & pricing power. Basically, it's making Indonesia more of a captive market for domestic firms vs OPENING UP MARKETS👈🏻
The president wants to reduce petroleum imports (Indonesia exports crude & imports refined oil). It also imports a lot of manufactured petroleum (PLASTIC!)

So the president wants to MOVE UP THE VALUE CHAIN by basically ENDING IMPORTS. Yep. True story.

Domestic players rejoice👇🏻
Read 12 tweets

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Approximately 5 hours until the start of #China’s big October 1 military parade. (Will start at 10 p.m. ET for fellow East Coasters.)
Nice.
There’s a lot here.
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Steven Wedgeworth
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Yesterday, I was quoting Kathy Keller to own the libs. And you really can do that. Frankly I would encourage it.

But now I want to point out where her view does get weird.
In *Jesus, Justice, &Gender Roles,* she cites CS Lewis in order to support her argument that men and women should embrace their god-assigned gender roles. But she spins Lewis a bit:

"[Lewis] makes a thoughtful point about the difference between the secular world and the church."
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She goes on to do mostly good things with Lewis, but..
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇨🇳 #China will cut export rebate rates to 13% and 9%, respectively, for exports that enjoyed 16% and 10% rebate rates in accordance with value-added tax cuts effective April 1, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
1) Electrical grid under attack?

You are watching a movie.
Let’s sit down and break it down.
This and other hypotheses and events.

It’s coffee time.
December 29, 2018.
2) There will be some intermittent pauses as I get set up and also research stuff.
3) If there is a silent civil war going on right now, the war has gone hot.

So my goal this morning is to pause and describe how we got here.

Observations, experiences, hypotheses + recent research.

To arrive at an educated guess as to what's next.
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🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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