If we end up leaving the EU on 31 January with a transition period (the most likely scenario but not guaranteed) some businesses will experience problems almost immediately. Why? Because some aspect of what they do involves forward transactions beyond the end of transition.
For instance, how do travel firms sell 2021+ packages when they don't know if the transition will be extended then or not? How do firms make arrangements to manufacture and ship future products not knowing the tariff situation. And so on...
If you think 11 months of transition is enough to unblock the logjam of business investment, prepare to be sorely disappointed. In some ways it's worse than now. Why? Because we will be out of the EU. That much is certain. But our future relationship is 🤷🏻♂️ 🤷🏻♂️ 🤷🏻♂️ 🤷🏻♂️ 🤷🏻♂️
So firms will know that Brexit can't be reversed.
Hurrah, certainty! That's what they crave, isn't it?
Except... we'll have traded a possible calamity at an indefinite future date for a guaranteed calamity at the end of transition (when???) unless we reach a good deal (what???)
Hurrah, certainty! That's what they crave, isn't it?
Except... we'll have traded a possible calamity at an indefinite future date for a guaranteed calamity at the end of transition (when???) unless we reach a good deal (what???)
In other words, tonnes of uncertainty left, but on a tight deadline with almost no room for manoeuvre.
