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U.S. nut exports to China are already exploding, even before the trade deal
(China is a big market for US almonds, pecans and walnuts ... and the growth in "nut" exports is an important part of how China can live up to the ag import side of the "deal")
Meat exports are also already above their 2017 (baseline for the deal) levels ...

Pork, beef and chicken "paws" all central to meeting the deal targets too
Soybean exports on track to reach $10b this year -- $2-5b less than "normal"

But need to get to close to $20b next year to bring total exports up to around $40b ...
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
I probably am the only one who finds this exciting ...

Thailand's bilateral surplus with the US topped $20b ($20.05b) in November.

Thailand thus should qualify for an automatic designation of manipulation on the Treasury Dept's three criteria in the April fx report.

(1/x)
Thailand easily meets the current account surplus criteria, and it has been intervening reasonably heavily in the fx market, so I at least believe it has crossed that threshold too.

Designation here, unlike the designation of China in August, wouldn't be arbitrary.

2/x
and Thailand hasn't really tried to disguise the fact that the Bank of Thailand is setting a cap on the baht, or trying to (as is the Central Bank of China with the TWD)

@sobel_mark

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3/3
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
. @Birdyword nails it in this article. Big rise in global holding of yen services is the by product of central banks who hold yen on a hedged basis. Their true fx exposure is to dollars.

wsj.com/articles/the-d…

1/x
@Birdyword Kind of crazy how large a large of the Japanese bill market foreigners now hold.

2/x
@Birdyword That's been an interesting thing about the BoP data too -- foreigners have been buying almost as many (safe, short-dated) JGBs as Japanese investors have been buying (riskier, often long-dated) corporate bonds ...

3/x
cfr.org/blog/puzzle-ja…
Read 8 tweets
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
There isn't any real news in Google's announcement that it will phase out its "double" Irish structure next year. All double Irish structure have to be phased out. The key question is what will replace Google's current double Irish.

1/x
cnbc.com/2019/12/31/goo…
One leg of a double Irish was an Irish company (legally speaking) that wasn't a tax resident of Ireland (as it was controlled by "Bermuda"). That is going to be phased out: the BEPS initiative requires that subs be tax residents of somewhere

2/x
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Ir…
One option would be for Google to consolidate its offshore operations around its U.S. headquarters, and take advantage of the lower rate on the export of intangibles (FDII)

3/x
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