My reflection on this week in Brexit so far is a government missing the opportunity of a comfortable election win to reset their approach, and instead deepening existing holes, and hiding them with semantics. This could get very messy once the political x-factor is gone... 1/
Northern Ireland - GB trade is the most obvious example of Government hiding discomfort - no new checks "beyond our obligations under international law". The entire business and political community is uniting in concern, and that really takes some doing 2/
Then there's the long term battle to deny that a US trade deal would mean UK changing food standards, descending into farcical suggestions yesterday of higher tariffs on lower quality food. By the Defra Secretary of State. Farming, food and animal welfare lobbies are watching 3/
And regulatory 'alignment' which government rules out with the EU. Without apparently knowing what it means, and despite it being the lifeblood of modern trade in goods sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals etc. 4/
Upcoming - fish. Where we're talking about no EU access to our waters. Which would be presumably reciprocated by the EU putting significant barriers on our ability to sell fish (and seafood). Could be a big issue particularly for Scottish producers. 5/
Also upcoming - data equivalence, requiring some form of 'alignment' with the EU, and movement of people, which we hear the European Parliament will cover in a resolution next week. Both big issues for the UK's services sector. 6/
It maybe doesn't matter right now that this little list of issues includes concerns to almost all exporters of goods and services, plus particular Scottish, Northern Ireland and farming concerns. Honeymoon period. But that's a pretty long list of the concerned 7/
In the government's favour, it is difficult for media to follow the breadth and linkage of trade issues. Unless you're @alanbeattie in the FT, having apparently worked on trade issues since you were a kid in Chester, and have already predicted most of these problems 8/
@alanbeattie Businesses, particularly large inward investors, also follow the ins and outs of government trade policy closely. They'd like to at least see government awareness of trade policy realities, preferably to hear some reality about future prospects. 9/
@alanbeattie The combination of bold statements, secrecy, and semantics delivered an election win, but also a troublesome Withdrawal Agreement (more to come here I think). Business confidence is low, not least because the outcomes are so unpredictable. 10/
@alanbeattie I've frequently been called a remoaner for complaining when Brexit is handled badly. That's twitter nonsense, but government really doesn't have to run negotiations like this. The chance to reset has been missed for now, the longer this goes on the more trouble ahead. 11/ end
