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On Bloombergon 20 Jan at 710am - early for Asian hours but just right for some?

Will discuss Asian economics w/ a focus on 2020 outlook, distilling b/n cyclical & structural trends, & sub-regional growth prospect.

Outlook in 2019: BAD NEWS = GOOD NEWS🤗
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Chinese stocks FELL on the good news of a massive jump of imports by +17.7% & exports +9% of exports (in CNY) & also news of US removing China as an FX manipulator & trade-deal signing.

WHY? Good news PRICED IN. W/ this, u may not get the stimulus u need to roll over debt! 😬
If BAD NEWS = GOOD NEWS was the theme for 2019 (I mean, I told u so right?). Many of you lamented on my saying this on TV when I said it & said it was a rubbish call.

What is the theme for 2020? GOOD NEWS PRICED IN. So how will markets react? Tune in (well, we wrote the report)!
Some people are like, dude, u're so bearish w/ your thread, what about asset prices?

First of all, the BOUNCE in 2019, HAS NOT REVERSED THE LOSS IN 2018. As in we're still -12.5% from Feb 2018 despite being up in 2019.

That's how stats work - easy TO FALL, easier to GAIN but!
Check this out:

HSI in 2019ytd +2.4%
HSI in 2019 +11%
HSI in 2018 -14.6%

HSI SINCE 2018 -3% 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻 (so if u didn't take profit on Feb 2018 at super peak, after a massive 2017 year b/c of greed, u're -11.2% DOWN TODAY)

Yep, ask a manager their long-term performance not annual!
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Ready? Thread on US-China value chain relationship. First, let's talk about gross trade from the US perspective & then we go into the transformation of that relationship & the status of tariffs & stage of production

Gross data: The US is the #1 importer in the world of 2.6trn 👇🏻
There are several ways to decompose gross trade (imports & exports) but to understand value chain, we need to look at it from stage of production. IMPORTS equal amt of intermediates (goods used for inputs) & consumer goods

US EXPORTS mostly INTERMEDIATES.
Trade deficit = EX < IM
Before we go on, the difference between exports & imports of the US = CA deficit, which means it imports capital (most EM Asia recycle CA surplus into UST & equities).

Or, the US is the FINAL DESTINATION OF MOST VALUE CHAIN. As in its imports are mostly for DOMESTIC USE so key!
Read 17 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Not just China, KOSPI & Nikkei & other Asian rally also fading today as people are selling the facts after buying the rumours.

But data totally upbeat in December for China trade!!!
Details on US-China trade-deal purchase agreement; used 2017 export figure to China (US perspective) & the total & what is in the USD200bn purchase agreement.

Question: Is the 35+40 services in addition to existing ~50bn of services b/c the US already exports above commitment??
Phase-1 Deal:

25% tariff on USD250bn goods of mostly intermediates in place (note that 250 is just based on those items value in 2018 & is a 25% tax on items on not amount); 120bn of goods (consumer & intermediates) have 7.5% tariffs.

China agreed to purchase USD200bn goods👇🏻
Read 10 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
China exports in USD was +7.6%YoY & imports was 16.3% (base effect very favorable - will talk about details detail on what drove the upward movement).

Notice that Chinese equity prices went DOWN after the massive upside surprise trade figures.
After rallying on trade-deal rumours, here are the facts:

* USD/CNY since trade-war peak (-4.2%) to 6.87, not good for China as needs to export deflationary impulses
* Commitment by China to purchase USD200bn of goods (75bn for manu + 50energy + 40agri + 35 to 40bn of services)
Basically FX (removal of manipulation in exchange for a weaker USD) +commitment of purchases (a lot more than what China had imported from the US prior to trade-war so a lot of creative accounting here or taking from elsewhere) = seen as negative for China exporting PPI deflation
Read 3 tweets

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EpigeneticWhisperer
@EpigeneticWhisp
The Sorry State of Vaccine Science
Lies, Deceit, & Corruption

A tweet series by The Epigenetic Whisperer

Scentism sees science as absolute/only justifiable access 2 the truth. Scientism warps science 2 fit its dogma. Truth becomes lies. Many r deceived by the corruption.

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Vaccine Science is actually Vaccine Scientism which I hope to clearly illuminate in this tweet series. Those who are pro-vax usually roll their eyes when u point out the deep corruption that exists in medical science. It’s not like this is a unique phenomenon.

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Throughout history, several industries have produced “science” to support their toxic product. Think tobacco, DDT, leaded gas, asbestos, & most recently glyphosate. Medical/vaccine science is no different. Any time u have a profitable product which is harmful to ppl &/or..

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EpigeneticWhisperer
@EpigeneticWhisp
Epigenetics, Immunity & Vaccines
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Ever since the discovery of the DNA double helix by Rosalind Franklin (Watson & Crick pilfered her work/Nobel) in the early 1950s, modern medicine has operated on the gene-based theory of disease.

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The Human Genome project was started in 1990 w/the goal of sequencing the entire human genome.

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Sylvain BAYA ABOKA
@Sylvain_BAYA
#LASAINTEBIBLE|#Hébreux6:1-3,4-20«1C'est pourquoi,laissant les éléments de LA #Parole de #CHRIST,tendons à ce qui est #Parfait,sans poser de nouveau LE #Fondement du #Renoncement aux œuvres mortes,[]»#AMEN,#Maranatha,#MerciJÉSUS

#Shalom
#Chrétiennement
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saintebible.com/hebrews/6-2.htm
✝✝✝

#LASAINTEBIBLE|#Hébreux6:1-3,4-20«1 C'est pourquoi, laissant les éléments de LA #Parole de #CHRIST, *tendons* à ce qui est #Parfait, sans poser de #Nouveau LE #Fondement du #Renoncement aux #œuvres #mortes,
2 de LA #Foi en DIEU, de LA #Doctrine des #Baptêmes, de L'#Imposition des mains, de LA #Résurrection des #morts, et du #Jugement éternel.

3 C'est ce que *nous ferons*, *si DIEU le permet*.
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
8.🗣️📢Alert World leaders, citizens of the world, is attempting a coup d'état in #Bolivia.
🗣️📢Do not let that happen.
🗣️📢Evo Morales is one of the great leaders of the 21st century.
🗣️📢Protect democracy
🗣️📢Protect Bolivia
#regimechange #ProtectBolivia #ProtectDemocracy
1. 🗣️📢Alert World leaders, citizens of the world, is attempting a coup d'état in #Bolivia.
🗣️📢Do not let that happen.
🗣️📢Evo Morales is one of the great leaders of the 21st century.
🗣️📢Protect democracy
🗣️📢Protect Bolivia
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1187148…
2. 🗣️📢Alert World leaders, citizens of the world, is attempting a coup d'état in #Bolivia.
🗣️📢Do not let that happen.
🗣️📢Evo Morales is one of the great leaders of the 21st century.
🗣️📢Protect democracy
🗣️📢Protect Bolivia
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1191853…
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ComSci ComÇa
@ComSciComCa
Aujourd’hui nous allons vous présenter des évènements dont nous sommes devenus les acteurs #bénévolat. Cela nous permet de gagner en expérience professionnelle.
On peut citer par exemple : la @sgamejamgre, @pintofscienceFR, @FestivalTransfo et @EgaliteSciences 😍
Mais en quoi peut on être utile pour ces évènements? #novices #evolution
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Campaign
@realnews1234
This all started because the #MetPolice & #LBRUT couldn't do their day jobs properly & decided to take the law into their own hands. It started as a small cover up 12 years ago but has turned into British State Persecution.

#Skynews #BBCNews #DailyMail #Guardian #Euronews
My company was raided. It should have been a straightforward matter. But the #MetPolice & #LBRUT forgot to seize my computer & came back to do a 2nd raid. The search warrant didn't permit a second entry, however, #LBRUT entered unlawfully

#Guardian #Telegraph #DailyMail #GMB #UK
Complaints were then made to my MP #VinceCable. He liaised with the #Metpolice & #LBRUT. And then weeks later, the search warrant was completely changed & was passed off as the search warrant executed on the day of the raids.

#DailyPolitics #Libdems #Conservatives #labour #bbcdp
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