1) spectra from space showing absorption of upward infra-red radiation from the Earth's surface.
2) Measurements from around the world showing increases in CO2, CH4, CFCs, N2O.
3) In situ & space based observations of land use change
1) Radiative-transfer (e.g. Manabe and Wetherald, 1967)
2) Energy-balance models (Budyko 1961 and many subsequent papers)
3) GCMs (Phillips 1956, Hansen et al 1983, CMIP etc.)
1967: increasing CO2 will cause the stratosphere to cool
1981: increasing CO2 will cause warming at surface to be detectable by 1990s
1988: warming from increasing GHGs will lead to increases in ocean heat content
2001: Increases in GHGs will be detectable in space-based spectra
2004: Increases in GHGs will lead to continued warming at ~0.18ºC/decade.
Stratospheric cooling? ✅
Detectable warming? ✅
Space-based changed in IR absorption? ✅
post-2004 continued warming?✅
Solar forcing? Fails the strat cooling test.❌
Ocean circulation change? Fails the OHC increase test ❌
Orbital forcing? Fails on multiple levels ❌