Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ Quick thread on this.

First, right off the bat can we all (myself included) collectively move away from military metaphors for trade negotiations?

I realize "war-gaming" sounds a lot more elite and tactical than "drunkenly fantasize" but it's honestly so unhelpful.

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1217879812322230274

2/ Second, let's clarify what is being pictured when the great and wise suggest weaponizing EU disunity.

The vision is a scenario whereby the EU is pushing the UK hard on fish because the French want it, and Poland tells the French to back off and shut up to get a deal done.

3/ For this to work:

a) Poland needs to prioritize getting a deal over relations with France (lol);
b) France must acquiesce to Polish pressure (rofl);
c) The French Parliament must subsequently ratify a deal in which one of its key asks isn't included (bahaha).

4/ A far more likely outcome of any potential EU divisions is a confusing Christmas Tree of demands from their side as degrading internal relations preclude anyone from sacrificing on their interests in the name of getting a deal done.

Yay?

5/ Third, we're once again back to the UK's willingness to accept a WTO outcome as a game-changing superpower before which the EU will crumble like a soggy biscuit.

I'm not sure how you get that impression from the events of late 2019. Nice internal customs border, btw.