Thread by @IbnRiad

[THREAD] Flight 752 - Evidence Recap / Political Narrative Revisited

I begin with a caveat: I am no "conspiracist"; I do not doubt narratives for the sake of it. Rather, I hope it's clear I consider all possibilities, including the real chance there's is nothing to be found here

Some suggested I am blindly defending Iran/the IRGC - to which I say, they have already admitted their guilt, and in a professional, honest and candid manner - indeed, with a grace few other governments could dream of. They do not need my defense.

Others seem to think I cannot accept the reality of the Iranian admission of guilt, to which I say: I fully accept the IRGC's statement about that night - at no point have I disputed their narrative. If there *is* anything to this, it means that their report is simply incomplete.

Iran had to react quickly to foil the US plot to expose Iran's yet-undeclared role in the downing and instigate huge anti-gov. protests. This haste *could* mean Iran have more to say, but insufficient evidence thus far - so they admitted full responsibility, for sake of speed.

As things stand, ranked most probable first, I see the the possibilities thus:

1. No US role: simple Iranian mistake under high pressure.

2. US role: AD radar spoofing

3. US role: hacking/rerouting flight 752

4. Other US role (i.e. hack of Tor-M1 unit > remotely fired, etc)

Let's start with the scenario where the US played no role. To understand the real possibility of an entirely accidental Iranian downing, you only have to read @MoonofA's excellent article, which puts forth a solid argument for how this could take place:

moonofalabama.org/2020/01/was-th…

@MoonofA On the other hand, since then, a lot more work has been done on the other possibilities, both the ones I suggested and others I did not think of. I have made my case in my previous thread, and so now I only present collected articles & documents pointing towards something more.

@MoonofA The first indication from the Iranian military itself. They did admit guilt, but recently Asst. Chief of Staff of the Iranian army said "the security apparatus is investigating the possibilities of a breach with regards to the downing of the plane".

https://twitter.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1217189027268517898

@MoonofA I believe this article largely references the same piece of news, & talks briefly about 2 possibilities: EW sabotage or physical infiltration (which I personally ruled out early on, though it does only say this is being "investigated" as a possibility):

informationclearinghouse.info/52865.htm

@MoonofA The University of Tehran Cyberspace Research Lab have also come out to say that solely 'human error has been ruled out', as they discovered 'deception operations against the air control & command system' of the IRGC/Iranian army:

https://twitter.com/khoosh_/status/1216782662968455168?s=20

@MoonofA Joe Quinn, author and essayist, has written very thorough article on the likelihood of "spoofing" of Iranian AD data by the US, either via compromised Tor M1 units, or through "ghost data injection" into ADS-B transponder data.

joequinn.net/2020/01/13/was…

His conclusion is:

@MoonofA Philip Giraldii (former CIA counter-terrorism specialist & military intelligence officer) also talks at length about the various ways in which the Iranian air defenses might have been "spoofed":

globalresearch.ca/who-targeted-u…

@MoonofA Dr. Iman Khosravi, post-doc in Remote Sensing Engineering, University of Tehran, also has his suspicions, though he himself leans towards a GPS-hack of the Boeing:

https://twitter.com/3lwiyahhh/status/1217094113021104128?s=20

@MoonofA Russian military site Avia.pro, citing Russian military experts, has a similar conclusion, adding that incident bears uncanny resemblance to the Syrian AD's downing of Russian IL-20 in September 2018, as a direct result of Israeli trickery.

globalresearch.ca/according-to-r…

@MoonofA I have prev. argued another incident involving Israel and Syria, when Israeli jets hid behind a civilian airliner as Syrian AD's targeted them - is also evidence that the "accidental downing" of an airliner is a US-Israeli ploy long in their playbook.

mintpressnews.com/analysts-confi…

@MoonofA Let's also not forget the highly suspicious fact that an anti-gov. dissident was hanging out in a derelict parking lot at 6AM at the exact right time & spot to film the few seconds of the crash - then sent the video through to dissident Nariman Ghareeb.

sputniknews.com/amp/columnists…

@MoonofA For theories reliant on a direct hack of plane itself (such as Dr. Khosravi and Alia.pro), there is more than enough indication that remote control of Boeing aircraft far from merely the realm of fantasy.

aviationtoday.com/2017/11/08/boe…

See also: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlle…

@MoonofA For the hacking of ADS-B communications (one way in which the Iranian air defenses might have been "spoofed"), Joe Quinn points to this article:

computerworld.com/article/247245…

@MoonofA Other ways Iranian air defenses could have been "spoofed" includes "Suter" technology:

mil-embedded.com/guest-blogs/si…

@MoonofA Russia declared US F-35's (which are equipped with capability of spoofing air defenses with this kind of tech) were present at Iranian border during the shoot-down of the Ukrainian airliner, raising suspicions even more:

https://twitter.com/ASBreakingNews/status/1218204100283764736?s=20

@MoonofA All of this together serves to show that, though not a certainty, there is enough reason to consider the possibility of something more behind the downing of flight 752.

I summarize the current situation in this graphic.

@MoonofA Onto the political side of things.

In all scenarios, we deduce US 1. had evidence of Iranian AD role / 2. assumed Iran would not immediately announce this. Thus US hoped to expose Iran & trigger planned protests - whose full effect was foiled by quick Iranian admission of guilt.

@MoonofA In the case of no US hand in the downing:

1. The US has trained 'protesters', at the ready for any opportunity.
2. Iran accidentally downs airliner
3. US tracks evidence of Iranian guilt, prepares protests
4. Iran quickly admits guilt
5. The US must prematurely activate protests

@MoonofA In the case of the US having a hand in the incident, we see this:

1. US trained protesters for specific false-flag
2. Iran tricked into accidental downing
3. The US waits for Iran to deny guilt
4. Iran quickly admits guilt
5. The US is forced to prematurely activate the protests

@MoonofA In this narrative, really only the time-frame changes, and actually, could be played with infinitely: did the US hatch this plan after Iran vowed to respond? Or when they plotted the murder of Soleimani? Or was it generally ready years in advance, and simply activated now?

@MoonofA Ultimately it makes little difference whether the US quickly reacted to an unexpected incident, or whether it had an advance plan prepared for an induced incident. This is almost immaterial at least with regards to the political plot they tried to pull.

@MoonofA So did the US trick Iran into downing the Ukrainian plane? Very possibly, but by no means definitely. It had the means and motivation to do so, and to expect the worst from the US has become a matter of habit.

@MoonofA The US, as a rogue state pulling off wild false flags, burning through innocent civilian lives and blaming other countries for it - is an image becoming more & more accepted as reality. Let us wait and see what emerges.

@MoonofA Another major achievement for the US in this incident (whether or not it is guilty), is the shift away in attention from its heinous crime of murdering martyr Qassem Soleimani.

But Iran has not forgotten, nor have its allies, and the coming weeks will bear testimony to this.