Thread by @IbnRiad

A thread regarding the anti-government protests that sprung up today in Iran, and the failed imperial plot that they point towards.

So as we know, Iran announced the Ukrainian airliner was accidentally shot down by an anti-air unit. There are lots of open questions in this regard, which I leave to another time.

My focus for now is on the timing of this announcement.

On the day of the Iranian announcement, small anti-government protests popped up, primarily by university students (so often the empire's favourite subjects), numbering at most in the hundreds.

One initial thing to note is just how organised they seemed to be. There are videos circulating of the protesters wearing body armour, acting in teams to draw in riot police, shining lasers from tops of buildings, etc - in short, Maidan/Hong Kong tactics.

This indicates, of course, a high level of training and preparedness among these protesters. This was not some spur-of-the-moment uprising, but rather an organised event, with elements trained with the usual CIA textbook.

The highly unusual personal presence of the British ambassador at the site also points to this, and perhaps also to the degree of importance that these protests hold for the regime-change camp.

But the most interesting thing here is the slogans the protesters used.

There were some dumb "Khamenei resign!" chants, clearly from an auto-cue written by Americans with no idea how Spiritual Leadership works - but the main tagline for these protests was:

"Death to Liars".

Now, this doesn't make much sense to me.

For protests that took place AFTER the government had just told the truth in the most honest & candid way any government ever has, how does "Death to Liars" figure? In no world does delaying the truth for a few days warrant such a chant.

But there *is* a context in which it would make much more sense. Given the clearly prepared and artificial nature of these protests, it is incredibly easy to imagine what the actual intention of this whole charade was.

Iran had been set up in more ways than one. In addition to being somehow tricked into downing the plane (may do a separate thread on this - many signs point to this, & I find it quite convincing), it is likely that the US had evidence that would expose Iran's responsibility.

The US had been relying on Iran denying the allegations or at least withholding the truth for longer, allowing it to come out with the evidence and "outing" Iran as liars. (Either directly or via someone like Trudeau, who seemed disappointed when Iran came out with the truth).

This would then be swiftly followed by the prepared and coordinated student protests, which in context of the planned scenario, would likely have drawn in much more support, and would have had a far more detrimental effect on Iran's integrity both domestically and abroad.

Perhaps this was planned all along as an American "response" to Iran's, or at least as an alternative to open war: trick Iran into downing the airliner, let them keep the secret, then expose them and set trained anti-government dogs loose in the streets, to be joined by masses.

It was a devious and ruthlessly effective plan- or it would have been. Except Iran came out with the truth only days after the event, and upset the entire plot.

Now, the student protesters had slogans that no longer made sense ("Death to Liars") and no support whatsoever from the actual population at large, who had witnessed a great show of integrity from their government on the global stage.

This is the first way in which Iran scuppered the plan. Indeed, depending on how long ago this plan had been concocted, it might even be reasonable to say that the millions upon millions of people that came out to martyr Soleimani's funeral also dented the plan well in advance.

The second (or third) way in which this plan has been foiled comes from Fars News's report on these protests. Some slow-witted western analysts have taken Fars reporting on the story as a sign of division within Iranian ranks, and drew up wild fantasy stories on that basis.

But the reality is a lot different. This is what Fars News reported:

Far from a sign of division in political/military ranks, anyone with half a brain can understand what this report is about. Considering the outpouring of emotion over Soleimani's martyrdom, anyone hearing of people ripping his posters down will quickly hate those people. A lot.

Thus even if there had been any potential left for normal Iranians to join these protests, the moment it's revealed that they're ripping down Soleimani's poster, people are 100% more likely to try and punch these protesters in the head than they are to join them.

Thus, US plan seems to have been:

1. Trick Iran into downing airliner (will make the case for this tomorrow, & still possible to follow narrative even if you believe no US hand in the downing).

2. Presume Iran will hold guilt secret.

3. Expose them, incite large-scale protests

We see evidence of this in:

1. Maidan/HK-style coordinated actions of 'protesters'
2. unconvincing reasons for demonstration
3. the out of place slogans ("Death to Liars") given the ne reality Iran imposed upon the context
4. the presence of UK ambassador at the site

So, what could have been a dangerous ploy, and the latest desperate attempt to get rid of the "Iran problem" without going to war, was defeated in three stages:

1. Millions mourning Soleimani
2. Iran's clever quick admission of guilt
3. The isolation & exposition of 'protesters'

The final blow to this plan could come tomorrow or in coming days, if pro-government rallies form, insisting on further avenging Soleimani's blood and insisting the focus not be shifted away from the crime that lead to his martyrdom.

To me, at least, this seems like a very feasible sequence of events, but is based on nothing but my own analysis for the time being.

As usual, the Americans are still trying to play chess with the Persians - and can win at neither that nor war.

End thread.