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Let’s cook conspiracy theories about why @realDonaldTrump might extend his travel ban to Nigeria.

Suspend disbelief:

1. It’s an election year. Voters love war & a crackdown on job-stealing immigration. He’s ‘won’ his showdown with Iran, now it’s time to get tough on immigrants.
2. Security concerns. The White House has said a travel ban helps it prevent terrorists from coming into the US.

Nigeria would need to show compliance with US-standard travel and ID security protocols, against the backdrop of rising security threats here in Nigeria.
3a. Trump simply doesn’t care about Nigeria:

He thinks the country is a shithole; her President @MBuhari is lifeless; and if granted visas Nigerians would never return to their huts in Africa (FYI the country with the highest rate of visa overstays in the US is Nigeria).
3b. We offer no transactional value to him, even with our oil & as a strategic military platform within West Africa, Niger seems to be preferable.
4a. Human rights, the rule of law, and elections.

The last year has been particularly bad for the Nigerian Govt. It held arguably the worst general elections in modern Nigerian history, constantly abused people’s basic rights, ignored the rule of law, then arrested Sowore.
4b. A narrative is also being pushed in the US that Christians are being targeted by State and non-State actors.

The Evangelical lobby is very rich, and very powerful - even outside the election cycle. It could have very easily leaned on Trump to act.
4c. America has been watching, and there are rumours that the travel ban might be restricted to Fed & State Govt. officials and people affiliated with them & their abuses.

The recent release of Dasuki and Sowore might help the Govt’s reputation, but El Zakzaky remains locked up.
5. Iran, a Shia nation, is already on the US travel ban.

Soleimani’s death sparked anti-US protests in Abuje. With fears that a proxy war might be fought outside Iran & Iraq, a travel ban would reduce the possibility of Nigerian Shiites taking the fight to America.
6. It might all be a bluff to make Nigeria ask Trump how she can get off the list. Maybe force us to pull back from our love affair with China and ask America to be our Valentine. 🥰

I’m unsure what our foreign policy is; I assume this would be a priority for @GeoffreyOnyeama
7. If Trump announces that we’re on the list, what can we do? Try to work to get off the list so they allow us back into paradise?

Or respond in kind like they did when we raised visa fees? Reciprocity, I think they called it. But how does an ant respond to an elephant?
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