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From 1980-2010, 2/3 of debt restructurings were insufficient to restore debt sustainability & were followed by weak growth & repeat restructurings,most of the time because a country waited too long to restructure. If we’re going to do this, & we should, we need to get started now
But we can’t jump in blindly.The Govt must properly assess its bargaining power by evaluating the legal exposure of assets outside Leb,incl BdL gold,MEA,etc., the full value of internal assets that creditors may try to claim (via sweeteners or other claims on state assets),
... the strategic considerations of stakeholders who will share the cost of the debt workout, and the near term and long term consequences of a debt default and restructuring.
Part of that involves hiring legal counsel and a financial advisor, but work should get started internally.
For example, the local Banks’ rejection of BdLs swap proposal calls into question the conventional view that local Banks would be more cooperative than foreign creditors in a debt renegotiation. We saw local Banks offload their bond holdings to get around the swap.
As a result, the Govt has to prepare for a scenario where the bonds are dumped after its intention to restructure is annnouced.This could involve local banks selling or foreign index funds selling if Leb is removed from the EMBI index. If the bond price drops significantly...
that could invite the type of foreign investor that would be an obstacle to an optimal restructuring. Our Eurobonds are not the easiest the renegotiate (the infamous no-cross-series CACs), so this is a serious matter that we need to plan around.
Losses will have to be shared between the taxpayer, bank shareholders, bank depositors, and foreign creditors. We need to find a fair, equitable, and sustainable allocation of these losses otherwise we will never get out of this economic rut. Again, this requires proper planning.
Losses allocated to the local Banks could be passed on to depositors instead of Bank shareholders. How this loss is absorbed needs to be part of a comprehensive solution so that small depositors aren’t unduly burdened to the benefit of others.
A EB restructuring by itself will not solve our problems. It absolutely needs to be part of a comprehensive set of economic reforms, political reforms, financial sector and central bank restructuring, etc. Everything is interdependent and can’t be looked at in isolation.
A committee should be formed immediately to manage the entire economic rescue program. If we do it piecemeal, it is likely to fail.
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