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Where did all of Lebanon’s $ go? Here are the biggest sources of $ outflows that benefitted from the LBP:USD peg. Personal $ transfers abroad (remittances, gifts, etc), fuel imports for EdL power/transportation, personal travel costs, food, and vehicle imports.
Personal transfers (~$55 billion from 2010-2018) is basically anyone sending $ from Lebanon to a non-resident abroad (a gift or remittance, etc). $45 billion on fuel imports (~1/3 for EdL), and an INCREDIBLE $40 bn in personal travel costs.
Ppl will have to travel abroad less & send less money abroad (to support family for ex). We desperately need to manage our fuel consumption which is killing us. Efficient power plants, renewables, public transport, and fewer cars on the road should have been policy 20 years ago.
If oil prices had stayed at $100 per barrel from 2015-2018 as it was from 2011-2014, total fuel consumption would’ve been $60bn vs $45bn. +$15bn is 30% of GDP! We really are one oil price shock away from a catastrophe and severe power cuts. We need fuel efficiency policies ASAP.
More areas to cut: food imports (veggies,livestock,processed food) used up another $30 bn & vehicle imports $18 bn. “Business services” are ignored because imports and exports of these are highly correlated and generally offset each other.
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