Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Here is a last look at Democratic primary preferences in Wisconsin before the world gets discombobulated by Iowa and New Hampshire. @MULawPoll data.

Of the remaining 12 candidates, the top 4 have been top 4 since Aug. 1/x
@MULawPoll Second choices have also had the same top 3 as first choices. As of January there are 3 close together for 4th-6th place among second choices: Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

2/x
@MULawPoll And here is who 1st choices go to as their 2nd choices. The top 7 choices in Jan. are shown.

3/3
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Charles Franklin

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PollsAndVotes see all

Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
Quick thread on broadcast news sources in Wisconsin and evaluation of Trump’s actions with respect to Ukraine.

Wisconsin relies on Fox a little more than the nation and network news a bit less. 1/x
There are unsurprising, large differences, in partisan choices of news. One surprise might be how relatively little partisan difference there is in network news choice by party, especially nationally. But other choices vary substantially by party. 2/x
News sources are self-selected, and so combine the effects of selection (Republicans prefer Fox, Democrats do not) with the content of the source. This makes causal inferences about the impact of content dubious at best with observational data such as surveys. 3/x
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
I didn't set out to write this thread but got provoked by a statistical comment and it developed into a substantive political point that I warmed to. Since that developed in the replies I'm making a thread of it here. TL;DR Religion matters but not too much, and that's good. 1/x
Partisanship regressed on detailed religious affiliation. Mainline protestant is the base category. Negative coefficients are more Republican, positive are more Democratic than mainline. @MULawPoll surveys, 2013-2019. Party ID is scored -2 R -1 LeanR 0 Ind 1 LeanD 2 Dem 2/x
To which @BruneElections replied "R^2 is tiny though. Although these are all significant they aren't close to everything." That's true but nothing puts me in a fighting mood faster than a debate over R^2. So I replied, spitefully, "Then by all means ignore the analysis." 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
Impeachment hearing thread. Run now if you don't want ordered probits. 16 to follow.
WARNING: This thread is going to be nerdy even by my standards, and rather long. It deals with opinions on impeachment controlling for several factors among Wisconsin registered voters in the @MULawPoll. Ordered Probits! Someone asked for this, so here. 1/x
Summary: party of course matters a lot. But beliefs about specific actions (asked, withheld) play a role in most cases. Attention or following hearings have an effect in some but not all cases. Age and education appear in a couple of cases. 2/x
Read 17 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Anne Baber Wallis
@abwallis
THREAD @Dr_ColetteDavis: What happens at the #Iowa #caucus?The caucus is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, yet I wld argue that it asserts the very best of democracy. It may not work in other places, but in #Iowa, it is a Beautiful Thing. #IowaCaucus
Allow me to explain. On a cold Jan night, Iowans leave their homes & go to the high school, community center, small school house, or even a home. When I lived in Iowa City (for 12 years and three election cycles), we caucased (yes, that’s a verb) at the nearby high school.
When I lived in Iowa City (for 12 years and three election cycles), we caucased (yes, that’s a verb) at the nearby high school. Starting the prior summer during the Iowa State Fair, candidates begin to descend on Iowa.
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last month)

Biden: 26 (3)
Warren: 21 (-5)
Sanders: 16 (-1)
Buttigieg: 11 (2)
Bloomberg: 4 (-)
Yang: 3 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Booker: 3 (1)
Klobuchar: 2 (-1)
Which candidates are Democratic primary voters considering voting for? (Pooled over the last month)

Warren: 50%
Biden: 50
Sanders: 39
Buttigieg: 35
Harris: 26%
Booker: 20%
Klobuchar: 16%
Yang: 14%
Bloomberg: 12
Castro: 10%

All else under 10%
Which candidates would Democratic voters be disappointed by if they won the nomination?

37% say Gabbard:
Williamson: 36%
Bloomberg: 31%
Biden: 24%
Steyer: 23%
Sanders: 22%
Delaney: 22%
Yang: 18%
Klobuchar: 17%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 15%
Booker: 14%
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
#democratic primary: It's 12/1 and just over 2 months to the IA caucuses. So what the heck is going on in this primary that's being conducted in the middle of a constitutional crisis? Well, the bottom line is that young voters are steadier in their preferences than older voters.
Taking @surveyusa polling from Aug-Nov, we see that the 18-34 vote has barely moved for Warren (-1), Pete (+1), Biden (+2) and Harris (-1). For Bernie, there was a big drop of -10 from Aug to Sept, but has since stabilized at 35, highest of any candidate in that demo.
Among 35-49 voters, since Aug, Liz is +2, Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Joe (-5) and Harris (-4). Among 50-64 voters: Warren (+2), Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Biden (-4), Harris (-5). Among 65+: Warren (-13), Pete (+7), Bernie (+2), Joe (-4), Harris (-5).
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change v last month)
Warren: 28 (+4)
Biden: 25 (+1)
Sanders: 13 (-4)
Harris: 5 (0)
Buttigieg: 5 (-1)
Yang: 3 (+1)
Bullock: 2 (+1)
Klobuchar: 2 (+1)

All else ≤ 1%
% of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (over last month):

Warren: 55%
Biden: 47
Sanders: 39
Harris: 30
Buttigieg: 28
Booker: 18
O'Rourke: 16
Yang: 13
Klobuchar: 11
Castro: 11

All else < 10%
% of Democratic primary voters who would be disappointed if ___ candidate won the nomination (over the last month):

Williamson: 32
Gabbard: 23
Biden: 22
Delaney: 21
Steyer: 20
Sanders: 19
Bennet: 17
Yang: 17
O'Rourke: 16
Booker: 13
Buttigieg: 11
Warren: 8
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Lulu Friesdat
@LuluFriesdat
Thread 1. My latest #ElectionSecurity reporting on the presence of a #WiFi signal in the tabulating room in #Dallas TX - the state where @BetoORourke lost his #Senate race to @tedcruz truthout.org/articles/new-e…
2. The investigation is over a backdrop of previous trouble that #Dallas County had with the results in the March #Democratic #Primary where multiple precincts had more #votes than #voters. Never a good thing.
3. On @TheBradBlog I talk about the investigation & play exclusive audio of #LauraPressley, an engineer coordinating #election observers all over #TX who discovered the irregularities, so you hear directly from the person who is reporting the #WiFi signal. bradblog.com/?p=12780
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Hey #Iowa! You get to vote in Primary Election on JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 25: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
And here’s a THREAD of All your Democratic Candidates with photos & website links.
Also info & links for Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
#IA01 #IA02 #IA03 #IA04
REGISTER TO VOTE in Iowa
Voter Registration by May 25
Form: sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/…
Mail or Deliver to County Auditor. Addresses here: sos.iowa.gov/elections/audi…
Or Iowa DMV office. Addresses here: dmv.org/ia-iowa/dmv-of…
Register Online through DMV here: mymvd.iowadot.gov/Account/Login?…
Democratic Candidates #IA01 Iowa
Abby Finkenauer
abbyfinkenauer.com
@Abby4Iowa
Thomas Heckroth
thomasheckroth.com
@HeckrothForIowa
George Ramsey
ramseyforuscongress.org
@RamseyforIowa
Courtney Rowe
courtneyroweforcongress.org
@RoweCourtneylr7

vs GOP Incumbent Rod Blum (R)
Read 12 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PA #BadNews #DemCastRI #NewYork #DemCastNM #ONpoli #IRA #CapitalismIsCorruption #Austrian #PENNSYLVANIA #humanity #MyBernieStory #MICHIGAN #Communism #rational #Russian #EvoElMundoContigo #KY #IA #Morales #AR #TheTractorists #ID #France #NeedNotGreed
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!