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#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last month)

Biden: 26 (3)
Warren: 21 (-5)
Sanders: 16 (-1)
Buttigieg: 11 (2)
Bloomberg: 4 (-)
Yang: 3 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Booker: 3 (1)
Klobuchar: 2 (-1)
Which candidates are Democratic primary voters considering voting for? (Pooled over the last month)

Warren: 50%
Biden: 50
Sanders: 39
Buttigieg: 35
Harris: 26%
Booker: 20%
Klobuchar: 16%
Yang: 14%
Bloomberg: 12
Castro: 10%

All else under 10%
Which candidates would Democratic voters be disappointed by if they won the nomination?

37% say Gabbard:
Williamson: 36%
Bloomberg: 31%
Biden: 24%
Steyer: 23%
Sanders: 22%
Delaney: 22%
Yang: 18%
Klobuchar: 17%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 15%
Booker: 14%
Despite the decline in her first-choice voting intention, Warren still performs well on the broader "considering" and "disappointed" questions. This graph shows that resistance to her (while higher than it used to be!) is still better than for, e.g., Biden and Sanders.
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
A stark finding from part of a project I'm working on (more TK), but it looks like Democrats' electoral college-popular vote divide increases as turnout approaches 70-75%, then explodes in the opposite direction as FL, AZ, NC, and TX flip. 1/3
This should probably worry Dems more than it excites them. Turnout is unlikely to be high enough to solve all of their issues without courting swing voters. In the meantime, whites in WI, MI and PA will have a disproportionate say in deciding the election. 2/3
3/3 In some ways, the electoral college acts like a time machine for American politics. Progressives and liberal activists like to dream of a day when their moral and policy "superiority"—which is often a majority, mind you—can win elections, but America is not there yet.
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW We have matched up county-level preferences for music genres with 2016 election results and have found the👏 key👏 data 👏 that capture the cultural currents that made Obama supporters flip to Donald Trump:

liking hard rock music.

THREAD.

economist.com/graphic-detail…
The data we have (from @VividSeats) is truly incredible. In every county, we have a record of the share of concert/etc ticket sales that fall into each genre in 2015/19. Here's that map (with each county scaled for population). Cities like rap/hip hop. Rural areas like country.
The music genre that most correlates with Republican vote share is, as you might expect, country music. A preference for "New Age" music (whatever that is) and Rock are also "red". Rap, Hip Hop & R&B, as mentioned, are "blue" music—as is liking alternative artists or Latin music.
Read 14 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
A lot of coastal liberal activists probably don't want to acknowledge it, but their 2020 electoral college fortunes will be disproportionately decided by low-education swing counties in the Midwest. It will take a big reversion for this group to go back to the D party. A thread.
Expanding the map to TX, AZ & GA is an obvious next step for the Democrats, but it won't come close to solving for the disproportionate importance of Midwestern counties in the lowest decile for educational attainment. This is true in the short-term, though not necessarily 4eva.
It's true that this group isn't a whole lot of voters; 2016 was decided by just 70k votes. But this misses the broader point. So long as race and education are cutting lines in US politics, non-college whites will wield an unfair amount of influence, but also temper EC margins.
Read 8 tweets

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Blank Slate
@blankslate2017
#democratic primary: It's 12/1 and just over 2 months to the IA caucuses. So what the heck is going on in this primary that's being conducted in the middle of a constitutional crisis? Well, the bottom line is that young voters are steadier in their preferences than older voters.
Taking @surveyusa polling from Aug-Nov, we see that the 18-34 vote has barely moved for Warren (-1), Pete (+1), Biden (+2) and Harris (-1). For Bernie, there was a big drop of -10 from Aug to Sept, but has since stabilized at 35, highest of any candidate in that demo.
Among 35-49 voters, since Aug, Liz is +2, Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Joe (-5) and Harris (-4). Among 50-64 voters: Warren (+2), Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Biden (-4), Harris (-5). Among 65+: Warren (-13), Pete (+7), Bernie (+2), Joe (-4), Harris (-5).
Read 19 tweets
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robjh1: The Conservative Black Cowboy
@robjh1
It's all about his ego. He want's to buy the election. If he enters it is proof the Democrats are comfortable with the current selection of candidates. #Bloomberg #Election2020 #VoteRedToSaveAmerica
He wants to buy the election. The thing about Bloomberg is he will run and then dictate how we should live our lives. He is also subject switch parties and become an independent.
Let's see how long it will take before he is hit with all sorts of #Metoo issues surrounding his company. 123...
Read 7 tweets
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Certified Intoxicologist
@keysdiver76
1) Recap of last night's democratic debate:

The Chairman of the Democratic National Committee funneled four pots of coffee before taking the stage and nearly has a heart attack while screaming about the republicans.
2)The quote of the night is already, "Climate change threatens our universe."
Never change, Tom Perez... Never change.

The moderators are introduced.
We have three hours of tonight's debate featuring ten candidates talking for seven minutes each divided into segments of four
3) I'm already confused.

ONE?! Only one of these jobbers has dropped since the last debate? How is that possible? I'm looking directly at you, Beto.
The national anthem is sung and shockingly, all the candidates remained standing and no one took a knee.
Read 17 tweets
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
Seems to me Beto beating Trump by 12 points in Texas is one of the biggest pieces of 2020 news in a while. If Beto can put Texas in play to terrorize the GOP in 2020 the Dems have no choice but to find some way (POTUS, VPOTUS, assured cabinet member) to keep him near to the fold.
1/ The Beto-Trump Texas poll also propels Beto into 2020 relevance no matter where his polls sit now, because he's instantly become one of a small number of (at a minimum) top VP picks in this field. And the VP pick almost *has* to come from this giant, talented Democratic field.
2/ Realize how *small* the (*way* too early) likely POTUS/VPOTUS field is now, given that some folks presently only fit one likely role:

POTUS: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg

VPOTUS: Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke (TX), Booker, Klobuchar (MN), Castro, Ryan (OH)
Read 10 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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