Impeachment hearing thread. Run now if you don't want ordered probits. 16 to follow.
WARNING: This thread is going to be nerdy even by my standards, and rather long. It deals with opinions on impeachment controlling for several factors among Wisconsin registered voters in the @MULawPoll. Ordered Probits! Someone asked for this, so here. 1/x
Summary: party of course matters a lot. But beliefs about specific actions (asked, withheld) play a role in most cases. Attention or following hearings have an effect in some but not all cases. Age and education appear in a couple of cases. 2/x
Variable definitions: PID is 1=Rep 5=Dem, Libcon 1=VCon 5=VLib. Follow hearings 0=not at all 3=very closely, asked 1=Trump asked for investigation, 0=not, withheld 1=Withheld aid to pressure for investigation, 0=not. 3/x
Variables contd: wrongnotwrong (what Trump did was) -1=not wrong at all, 0=wrong but not serious, 1=seriously wrong, impeachremove 1=not, 2=don't know, 3=impeach & remove, votes are 3=Trump, 2=DK/Neither 1=Dem 4/x
Variables contd: attendpolitics 0=not at all, 3=most of time, lv 1=likely voter, 0=not zagecomplete is age in years. zed6 is 1=less than high school, 6=post-BA 5/x
These models don't capture "causal effects" and attitudes are endogenous, ie Dems more likely to believe some things, Reps more the opposite. But at least the models are multivariate so effects estimated here are controlling for the vars in the model. 6/x
Reminder: This survey was in the field from Wednesday, Nov 13-Nov 17, the first day of public testimony and following. Thus does NOT reflect the impact of the 2nd week of testimony. 7/x
Who follows hearings? Overwhelmingly those who also attend to politics. Marginal effect of party, no ideology, LV, age or ed. 8/x 
Who thinks Trump asked for investigation? Dems, libs, those attending to politics, more educated, No effects of LV, age or following the hearings once other vars are included. 9/x
Who thinks Trump withheld aid? Dems, liberals, older people. Attention, LV,education and following hearings don't seem to matter. 10/x
Did Trump do something seriously wrong? Dems & liberals think so, those who think he asked for an investigation & withheld aid to pressure for an investigation. Marginal age effect w younger voters more likely to think he did wrong.Not sig:Attention, LV, ed, follow hearings 11/x
Should Trump be impeached & removed? Dems think so, so do those following the hearings a lot & who think he asked & withheld. Attention is negatively related to support for removal, controlling for following hearings. Not sig: libcon, LV, Age, Ed. 12/x
Vote vs Biden. Neg means less supportive of Trump, more of Dem. Big party effect, of course. Neg effects of asked and withheld. Not anything else. (One could have more demographics but the core question here is do impeachment opinions matter above party.) 13/x
Vote vs Samders: Party, libcon (not sig in Biden equation), withheld are all significant. Asked is not. Others not. 14/x
Vote vs Warren: Party and withheld are significant. None others. Libcon drops out. 15/x
Vote vs Buttigieg: Party, asked and withheld are significant. None others. 16/16
