Thread by @pmdfoster

So finally the major business groups are just starting to be consulted on #brexit future EU/UK trade deals.

But what do they want? Will govt listen to them? Or do they just over-estimate how much No 10 really cares? I've tried to find out.
1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/…

Until now, all the main business groups uniformly report that on the EU-UK deal, there has been NO real consultation since the election.

Letters, emails, WhatsApps go mostly unanswered. It's a "black box" as one trade chief tells me. And only 4-5 weeks before talks begin. eek/2

To be clear, as @namali_mackay a former Australian trade negotiator tells me, this is NOT normal. Ordinarily business would be consulted every step of the way. /3

@namali_mackay And there is reason for this - because without it, as one trade association boss tells me, as a negotiator you are 'blind'.

You need to know how decisions on say rules of origin will hit each product; and where the trade-offs are. Obvious really. /4

@namali_mackay So that is why today @Foodanddrinkfed along with two other Brexit farming groups released a report calling on business to be 'in the room next' door giving real-time advice. Their policy paper is here, key points attached. /5

fdf.org.uk/publicgeneral/…

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed Because as ALL the groups keep saying and @BCCAdam tells me, "details matter". None of this is new - here is a British Chambers report from April 2018 - they want a dialogue.

But truth is they aint getting one. So, another example... /6

britishchambers.org.uk/news/2018/04/b…

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam As @BastidonPauline of the Freight Transport Association @newsfromfta tells me, her group sent a letter to @hmtreasury after Christmas, nearly four weeks ago to raise the critical issue of customs agents - so far, no reply.

And it is critical.../7

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury Some numbers.

- UK has 4,000 customs agents
after #brexit

- up to 250,000 SMEs may find themselves doing customs declarations for first time.

- decs cd spike from 55m to 270m in a WTO scenario, per HMRC

So you'd think govt wd want to help? /8

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury Apparently not so much....at least that's the word.

The market will have to adjust, even though it takes 1-2 years to train agents...and the market still isn't really clear what it's adjusting to. /9

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury Yes, you can do some basic prep - but when you talk to groups, their point is that that prep is reasonably limited. You need "precise operational details, not just generalities" - will there be tariffs or not? Will their be a vet deal? An MRA for AEO status? etc etc /10

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury And all this is based on business groups accepting that #Brexit IS going to happen and that the UK is NOT going to be in single market and customs union. There will be checks and frictions. And yet, yet... /11

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury BUT...just as biz world can't *quite* believe @BorisJohnson is really going to inflict disruption on a grand scale; so Government doesn't really believe business is really grasping/embracing what government is planning to do. /12

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson Those with knowledge of life inside the 'black box' warn that business really needs to understand just how hard/committed the government is to ramming this #brexit through...and how little notice they will take of business complaints or warnings. /13

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson One old hand notes that biz groups get to see the PM's business adviser; they *feel* important, they *feel* as if they are getting through - but truth be told, on big strategic negotiation decision, the biz adviser is not 'in the room'. Biz is not as important as it thinks /14

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson Perhaps this will change, but on current evidence, there is really no particular reason to believe that it will.

Some of the groups feels resigned to this; others accept that given some biz will be thrown under bus by Brexit, it makes sense for govt to do the dirty late /15

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson And who knows - per thread passim on 'decoupling' - it may be that with some judicious state aid, some investment spending and a bit of propagandising the govt can do this without a major showdown in early 2020 /16

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson This will be particularly true if the UK can negotiation - as @Foodanddrinkfed and others request - some kind of phased implementation arrangements to give them time to adjust to the *actual* new reality, whatever it turns out to be. /17

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson But all the same, it IS a genuinely weird world we're in at the moment.

Winding up for a trade deal (kick off in March!) with minimal detailed interaction with impacted market segments.

And the 'party of business' apparently on a collision course with business /18

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson It is all hard to work out. Particularly as when @BorisJohnson said "f**k business' he was apparently aiming at 'big business'.

But it will be small business that will be least equipped to adapt. Is this nation of shopkeepers really prepared for what is to come? /19

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson Perhaps its all scaremongering. Maybe.

I am a reporter. I can only report what I am told.

But instinctively, you'd think erecting all those barriers to trade, almost, overnight will have impact.

We'll find out soon enough. ENDS

@namali_mackay @Foodanddrinkfed @BCCAdam @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta @hmtreasury @BorisJohnson PS..and I should add, this is not just about agri/logistics, it applies across the piece. @cullasys from @ADSgroupUK reminds me govt needs to engage early and prioritise on areas like aerospace regulation. Time is so short.