Thread by @pmdfoster

So on the 'battle of the slides' the No 10 accusation of EU backsliding on the Political Declaration, quickly....I'd point to THIS slide from the EU's recent seminars on how to approach EU-UK trade talks... NB accepts premise of UK divergence. 1/Thread

BUT this is what then flows from that position...because this isn't really about 'equity', as one officials once said to me, "its a negotiation"...and the EU's ability to protect its interests, and the integrity of single market /2

So No 10 going at @MichelBarnier simplified 'staircase' and complaining of EU backsliding/skullduggery just ignores - as @Mij_Europe notes - reality that EU has always warned that UK posed special questions, given size/proximity. /3

Remember the hullabaloo over @NickBoles 'Norway For Now' plan...that all died partly when it became clear that the UK would not be treated as Norway - I remember doing long thread on that, that upset many of its proponents. The EU always been clear it would defend itself/4

@NickBoles So when it comes to the level playing field (see slides above) the Political Declaration is clear that it must include what @theresa_may signed up - which is why LPF elements were shunted into PD/Future dec once we'd given up on a customs union. See here from revised PD /5

@NickBoles @theresa_may So key phrase (which we'll be fighting over) is

"The precise nature of commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship"

Now. Who gets to define "commensurate"??? /6

@NickBoles @theresa_may Well I guess this is where it gets ugly, and where the expectation gap between the two sides on what's fair and what's not, risks poisoning the negotiation.

But as @vonderleyen warned in her speech last month to LSE, UK will face hard choices.../7

@NickBoles @theresa_may @vonderleyen Read @DavidHenigUK here - if he's gloomy sometimes, it's because (I think) he's been scarred by realworld talks, from doing EU/US transatlantic "TTIP" deal....he knows how tough this stuff is. /8

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1223902552258904064

@NickBoles @theresa_may @vonderleyen @DavidHenigUK In reality, the EU is clear that the UK can diverge, but it will impose costs for doing so that.

'fair or unfair', doesn't really matter to be honest - that's the language of plagrounds, not grown-up, big-power trade negotiations. /9

I mean, go and talk to the Swiss, see how they like to be on the wrong end of EU arm-twisting...they don't, but they are being dragooned into signing an Association Agreement that leaves them, in practice, subordinate to the EU. In an unequal relationship...but guess what? /10

From a trade perspective, this is NOT going to be a relationship of equals, contrary to what @SteveBarclay said last week he wanted...market of 460m v 65m...go figure. And we'll find this also applies to doing those deals with Aus, Can, Jap, US etc. Welcome to fight club. /11

@SteveBarclay Of course, at the moment, both sides are setting out very maximalist positions - and the kindest/most hopeful reading of UK position is that they are setting up a straw man for UK audiences on 'that nasty EU is stopping us diverging" so that.../12

@SteveBarclay ...@BorisJohnson can claim victory and freeeeedom when he accepts (per first two slides above) what the EU is ACTUALLY offering.

Divergence, but with a gun to our heads - which will open door to lots of facilitation agreements that wil make the border and supply chains work /13

@SteveBarclay @BorisJohnson Because in the real world, the UK is in the land of limited choices as much as hard choices...

When I talked to trade groups last week about Govt plans to put full-fat trade border in Kent...I wish you could have heard their quailing voices. /14

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

@SteveBarclay @BorisJohnson Talk to people who actually move stuff and supply stuff for a living - the nuts n bolts people - and they really don't see how this work without the facilitation agreements and standards alignment...for which the prices is going to be, in practice, bunch of LPF /15

@SteveBarclay @BorisJohnson Will it feel like EU bullying? Hell-yeah.

But I voted remain not because I thought the EU was a dynamic future, but because after a decade in SAsia, Beijing and WashingtonDC it seemed pretty clear we'd get horribly squeezed going it alone. /16

@SteveBarclay @BorisJohnson The risk is that all this realpolitik ends in a big fat blow up - so as @AndrewDuffEU tells me here, both sides need to wind their necks in to avoid disaster. EU needs to find another gear;UK needs to get more pragmatic. Littl sign thus far. /17

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

Because there is willy-waving on both sides at the moment.

For EG, the EU determined to link fish deal with trade deal.

Be intersting to see what happens if @BorisJohnson refuses that linkage.

Will @MichelBarnier really down tools? Will other EU MS let him? /18

All of this we're about to find out - well in the next 11 months or so.

Monday, as is clear from today's papers, is just gonna be staking out positions.

Past experience, per @SamuelMarcLowe formular, says EU wil move a bit, the UK a lot. And we find a deal. ENDS