Thread.
1. Today I’m investigating the crash & claims of shootdown of a USAF E-11A Bombardier ac, over Ghazni Province — Taliban controlled territory in Afghanistan. This video purportedly shot at the scene shows the ac registration 358 on the tail.
1. Today I’m investigating the crash & claims of shootdown of a USAF E-11A Bombardier ac, over Ghazni Province — Taliban controlled territory in Afghanistan. This video purportedly shot at the scene shows the ac registration 358 on the tail.
2. CONFIRMATION.
The number on the tail plane from the footage taken at the crash scene (#358) matches this USAF E-11A ac of the 430th Expeditionary Electronic Combat Squadron. The ac are operated out of Kandahar, Afghanistan.
The number on the tail plane from the footage taken at the crash scene (#358) matches this USAF E-11A ac of the 430th Expeditionary Electronic Combat Squadron. The ac are operated out of Kandahar, Afghanistan.
3. WHAT DOES THE E-11A DO?
USAF operates E-11A in the Battle Space Airborne Communications Node. Effectively a secure WiFi in the sky that allows critical comms btw elements fighting the Taliban: JTACs talking to Close Air Support jets for example.
📸 dvids.net
USAF operates E-11A in the Battle Space Airborne Communications Node. Effectively a secure WiFi in the sky that allows critical comms btw elements fighting the Taliban: JTACs talking to Close Air Support jets for example.
📸 dvids.net
4. WHAT DO WE KNOW?
Per @Reuters: A U.S military spokesperson has confirmed:
• the crash of the USAF E-11A in Ghazni Province, but has not commented upon who or how many were on board, or fatalities.
• that there were no indications crash was caused by enemy fire.
Per @Reuters: A U.S military spokesperson has confirmed:
• the crash of the USAF E-11A in Ghazni Province, but has not commented upon who or how many were on board, or fatalities.
• that there were no indications crash was caused by enemy fire.
5. WHAT HAS BEEN CLAIMED?
Per @Reuters: the Taliban are claiming:
• The aircraft ‘was brought down.’
• It was ‘on an intelligence mission.’
• Crew involves ‘high ranking officers.’
So what could bring an E-11A down?
Per @Reuters: the Taliban are claiming:
• The aircraft ‘was brought down.’
• It was ‘on an intelligence mission.’
• Crew involves ‘high ranking officers.’
So what could bring an E-11A down?
6. THREATS TO E-11A?
Threats are dependent on E-11A operating altitude, and what we know the Taliban use.
• Heavy Machine Gun. Abundant. Innacurate. DShK can fire up to ~10,000ft agl.
*Unlikely.*
Threats are dependent on E-11A operating altitude, and what we know the Taliban use.
• Heavy Machine Gun. Abundant. Innacurate. DShK can fire up to ~10,000ft agl.
*Unlikely.*
7. THREATS TO E-11A? contd.
• MANPADS. IR Seeker. Very limited quantities. U.S supplied Stinger to Mujahideen in 80s vs Soviets. Batteries a weak point. Few instances of use. @MilitaryTimes reported Iran supply of SA-7 to Talibs from 2010 Intel report. Max Alt below 20,000ft.
• MANPADS. IR Seeker. Very limited quantities. U.S supplied Stinger to Mujahideen in 80s vs Soviets. Batteries a weak point. Few instances of use. @MilitaryTimes reported Iran supply of SA-7 to Talibs from 2010 Intel report. Max Alt below 20,000ft.
7b. MANPADS THREATS TO E-11A? contd.
MANPADS also use impact and proximity fuses and target heat sources. There’s no evidence of major shrapnel fields across the rear engine, from the crash site footage in #1.
*Highly unlikely*
MANPADS also use impact and proximity fuses and target heat sources. There’s no evidence of major shrapnel fields across the rear engine, from the crash site footage in #1.
*Highly unlikely*
8. THREATS TO E-11A? contd.
• SAMs. Radar guided, tracked vehicle. e.g BUK, SA-15, SA-6. Max Alt between 20,000ft - 60,000ft. No evidence Talibs have SAMs. Iran do have SA-6 and SA-15 but almost impossible to be used in Afghan w/out U.S ISTAR detecting.
*extremely unlikely*
• SAMs. Radar guided, tracked vehicle. e.g BUK, SA-15, SA-6. Max Alt between 20,000ft - 60,000ft. No evidence Talibs have SAMs. Iran do have SA-6 and SA-15 but almost impossible to be used in Afghan w/out U.S ISTAR detecting.
*extremely unlikely*
9. E-11A SELF DEFENSE SYSTEMS?
Large military aircraft that operate regularly within and through threat levels will have a form of Self Defense System. IR Jammer, Direct IR Counter Measures, LAIRCM, Missile Warning, Flares etc.
For example the RAF’s Sentinel.
Large military aircraft that operate regularly within and through threat levels will have a form of Self Defense System. IR Jammer, Direct IR Counter Measures, LAIRCM, Missile Warning, Flares etc.
For example the RAF’s Sentinel.
10. E-11A SELF DEFENSE SYSTEMS? Contd.
I cannot identify any IR Jammer, Missile Warning System, Flare boxes on the ac at Kandahar. This suggests operating altitudes are well above MANPADs and HMG threats. Ergo, well above 20,000ft.
📸 dvids.net
I cannot identify any IR Jammer, Missile Warning System, Flare boxes on the ac at Kandahar. This suggests operating altitudes are well above MANPADs and HMG threats. Ergo, well above 20,000ft.
📸 dvids.net
11. SABOTAGE?
While HMG, MANPADS and SAMs are extremely unlikely. Ac very very rarely drop out of the sky.
Sabotage would have to entail clandestine activity occurring at Kandahar. Given the security, extremely unlikely.
While HMG, MANPADS and SAMs are extremely unlikely. Ac very very rarely drop out of the sky.
Sabotage would have to entail clandestine activity occurring at Kandahar. Given the security, extremely unlikely.
12. CONCLUSION.
There’s no current evidence that suggests Talibs have the capability to bring down an E-11A. FDR/ CVR recovery is crucial & will provide critical evidence. And no word of an emergency call or details of last comms w/ ac by users. Info on who was on board useful.
There’s no current evidence that suggests Talibs have the capability to bring down an E-11A. FDR/ CVR recovery is crucial & will provide critical evidence. And no word of an emergency call or details of last comms w/ ac by users. Info on who was on board useful.
13. Update:
*Caution as unconfirmed.*
Rumours circulating about Michael D’Andrea, CIA’s Iran black ops chief, known as the ‘Dark Prince’ and ‘Ayatollah Mike, was on board the E-11A.
m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ir…
*Caution as unconfirmed.*
Rumours circulating about Michael D’Andrea, CIA’s Iran black ops chief, known as the ‘Dark Prince’ and ‘Ayatollah Mike, was on board the E-11A.
m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ir…
14. Update 29 Jan 00.02|
‘D’Andrea’s name began to appear in Farsi media (Iran) in the aftermath of the Soleimani strike when articles at Mehr News and Radio Farda claimed he was involved in planning the US operation.’
‘D’Andrea’s name began to appear in Farsi media (Iran) in the aftermath of the Soleimani strike when articles at Mehr News and Radio Farda claimed he was involved in planning the US operation.’
15. Update 29 Jan 00.07|
Iran claiming D’Andrea was on board and the E-11A was shot down by Talibs is good propaganda for Iran. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted Russian sources saying the “assassin of Soleimani was on the plane and [was] killed in the crash.”
Iran claiming D’Andrea was on board and the E-11A was shot down by Talibs is good propaganda for Iran. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted Russian sources saying the “assassin of Soleimani was on the plane and [was] killed in the crash.”
16. Update 29 Jan 00.11|
There’s been contradictory info about who was on board & who was recovered.
U.S hasn’t provided any info on passengers or deaths — if this isn’t going to be a propaganda win for Iran, maybe the U.S need to confirm the pax manifest? (after Kin-forming)
There’s been contradictory info about who was on board & who was recovered.
U.S hasn’t provided any info on passengers or deaths — if this isn’t going to be a propaganda win for Iran, maybe the U.S need to confirm the pax manifest? (after Kin-forming)
17. update 29 Jan 00.30|
Latest reports suggest just 2 crew were involved. Pilots learn to operate on the E-11A only in Afghan.
@Reuters: U.S official talking under anonymity said remains were believed to be of 2 service members on the plane.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
Latest reports suggest just 2 crew were involved. Pilots learn to operate on the E-11A only in Afghan.
@Reuters: U.S official talking under anonymity said remains were believed to be of 2 service members on the plane.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
