Thread by @MikeyKayNYC

CRITICAL| Excellent work by @BabakTaghvaee on Ukraine Int Airlines FLT #PS752 crash. The evidence of a shootdown is very compelling given the impact point & proximity/debris of the Tor-M1 SAM site (NATO code name SA-15 Gauntlet). The FDR/CVR need to be reviewed ASAP for proof.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1215281024885719040

2. Tor-1M SAM site (SA-15) sits just to the North of the extended centreline of Tehran’s North Westerly runway. Which means that civilian ac will pass within close proximity on a very regular basis. Crucial question: what would trigger the launch of a radar guided missile now?

3. There was clearly Iranian ballistic missile (BM) activity that night directed towards Iraq. And Iran’s Air Defense Systems will have been on high alert for U.S offensive air activity.

My big Qu: what deconfliction procedures were in place btw Irananian SAMs & Civ Air traffic?

4. Important to clarify that the evidence hitherto IS NOT enough to conclude that Ukraine Flt #PS752 was shot down by an SA-15. But there’s also no evidence yet to take this scenario off the table. And therefore it needs to be drilled into. The FDR/CVR data will be critical.

5. #PS752| major alarm bell is why there was no Mayday call by the crew? For example there were no Mayday calls for:
1. MH-17: shotdown over Ukraine.
2. MH-370: disappeared from KL.
3. Germanwings: deliberate crash by co-pilot from Barcelona.
4. Metrojet 9628: explosive device.

6. #PS752| if U.S sensors were looking in the right direction, they would’ve been able to detect whether the SA-15’s search radar & tracking radar were activated during the moments prior to and during the PS752 crash. That’s the way the HARM missile identifies SAMs for targeting.

7. #PS752| In a previous life I was an senior instructor on SAM/MANPADS threats to helicopters in conflict zones:
1. How you identify a radar or IR guided missile (RWR or MWS).
2. the tracking sequences.
3. and how as a pilot you counter the threat (flares or chaff).