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At the end of every year I go through the process I teach in my course as a way to look back over the past year and extract any lessons and think about both long term goals and short term ones. However, it’s not something that I typically share.
As, I often get a lot of questions from friends and readers about what I am up to. I tried something out this year where I put together a Year in Review Update to send out to some close friends.
One of them suggested that I go ahead and share it publicly to let people know what is going on with me and maybe generate a bit of luck. taylorpearson.me/luck/
To that end, I put together a note sharing a bit about what is going on with me, with hope of including some lessons learned that might be helpful to others.

taylorpearson.me/2019-review/
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Taylor Pearson
@TaylorPearsonMe
This chart from 538 actually shows one of the main problems with many types of predictive models.

Your greatest volatility always exists in the future so any purely historical analysis is clipping off the tails.

To quote @paulg, history is merely all the data we have so far
Models with high BIAS tend to be simple and generalize well out of sample, but they may leave some explanatory power on the table

i.e. middling backtest but live results are more likely to resemble simulated results.
Models with high variance are more tightly coupled with the training data. They are highly explanatory in-sample but may not generalize well on unseen data (i.e. great backtest, poor live results).
Read 8 tweets
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Taylor Pearson
@TaylorPearsonMe
At this point, I've probably known a few hundred people start companies with outcomes everywhere from exiting to the tune of hundreds of millions to shutting down.

If I had to guess what variable is most predictive in that distribution, it would be Tempo
When I played football in college, at practice we had a clock while we were running plays and we were always trying to be on a pace to run 100 offensive plays per game.

The whole practice, our Offensive Coordinator would stand behind us and yell

"TEMPO TEMPO TEMPO"
The best CEOs I've seen do something similar to this.

They themselves move at a fast tempo and they focus on keeping the organization tempo high, even when it means more mistakes are made.
Read 6 tweets
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Taylor Pearson
@TaylorPearsonMe
I just got an email from a reader with a background in Bogleheads/Vanguard/Value investing philosophy.

They were looking for the best resources for understanding portfolio theory/diversification and risk.

This is what I sent

(Curious what else would be helpful to include)
Fooled by Randomness - really any Taleb book as they all have the same central idea but I think FBR is easiest to understand.

amazon.com/Fooled-Randomn…
The idea behind the Permanent Portfolio.

This is a great primer from @joshkaufman

joshkaufman.net/permanent-port…
Read 7 tweets

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Elizabeth Barnes
@e_j_barnes
Long thread in which I over-share on the internet to complain about a gap in the #bioethics literature because I'm feeling introspective and also kind of bored /1

#Disability #medicalhumanities
I recently got a feeding tube.

I went into it kicking and screaming - I desperately didn't want it and I put it off longer than I should have. And it really sucked at first. It still kind of sucks now, but honestly it's not that bad. It got better. /2
The tube is temporary, but I'll almost certainly be faced with the choice again in the future. And when I am, I'll be much less reluctant. My attitudes and preferences have changed, having had the experience. /3
Read 14 tweets
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Isabel Hardman
@IsabelHardman
Just realised it is #mentalhealthawarenessweek2019 (loooong hashtag). It’s also pretty much bang on three years to the day that my suicidal thoughts and crippling paranoia became so evidently bad that a friend insisted I go to the doctor and ask for help.
I also *think* that this is the week when I finish writing my second book, which is on mental health and the great outdoors. Lots of synchronicity there, not all of it particularly nice.
Anyway, am not tweeting about this because I’m keen for sympathy - I’ve got plenty of family and friends who offer the kind of unconditional love that just seems inexplicable, whether I’m healthy or sick. Or to offer some kind of triumphalist ‘recovery’ story.
Read 18 tweets
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Sara Danner Dukic
@saradannerdukic
As we carefully consider next moves, let's not forget the following:
We were attacked.  We're still being attacked.  The method of attack: infiltration of our social media, our news sources, and the general information ecosystem.  The best way to combat this is by providing ample exposure for the truth.

justice.gov/opa/pr/russian…
Let's not repeat a failure of imagination. If you think norms won't be shattered, or insane moves won't be made, look back over the past 2+ years. This is an unprecedented moment in history and will require unprecedented actions to deal with it.
Read 26 tweets
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Mario⚡️Gibney
@Mario_Gibney
@TuurDemeester 1/27 Can't communicate this in 280 characters, so here's a long one.

*Deep breath*

When I look back over the past 3 years, it is staggering how much my life has changed, and Bitcoin was a huge factor in that.

Late 2015/early 2016 was the darkest period of my life:
@TuurDemeester 2/27 I was falling further into debt failing out of a university program I didn't yet realize I hated, my social life was little more than getting drunk several nights a week, and I had no constructive hobbies - nights alone were often spent compulsively playing computer games.
@TuurDemeester 3/27 I felt like I hadn't made progress on any long-term plans in years. Serious depression had started to take hold, which led to increasingly erratic sleeping patterns. My ability to focus was almost non-existent, as was my appetite.
Read 27 tweets
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Lady Tweetmouth
@RookieKE
We are halfway through the year, how are you doing on your financial goals?
Tomorrow at 9am, our #52WeekChallenge mid-year chat is about that. #Goals
In 30 minutes, we discuss financial goals. What's the difference between financial:
- Plans
- Goals
- Dreams
- Wishes
Hey guys, we are about to start the mid-year #52WeekChallenge twitter chat. Who is present?
Read 30 tweets
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(((Yonatan Zunger)))
@yonatanzunger
Some context about what's going on here. TL;DR: ICE is using Facebook records to track people down. This isn't because Facebook is doing something wrong; this is legally compelled disclosure. And it highlights some common misconceptions about corporate power. 1/
It's become common to view corporations as nearly all-powerful, especially ones as big as Google or Facebook. But it turns out that their power is *tiny* compared to that of governments.
This point was driven home to me rather forcefully at the end of 2016, when we started to ask the question of what we *could* do at Google to protect our users if, for example, the government started to round people up and ship them off. Short answer: not much.
Read 58 tweets

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