1. A short thread.
If we do get semi-reliable results today and they more or less track the entrance polls and early precincts, I think (despite the ridiculous chaos and screw-ups) that Iowa will in fact prove significant.
If we do get semi-reliable results today and they more or less track the entrance polls and early precincts, I think (despite the ridiculous chaos and screw-ups) that Iowa will in fact prove significant.
2. If Sanders turns out to have run comfortably ahead of Warren in the progressive “lane,” it seems likely he’ll do do so again in NH and NV. Sanders would then be the progressive finalist, and perhaps the overall front runner.
3. If Biden is third or fourth, significantly behind Buttigieg, that’s a blow to him. That result is likely to be replicated in NH—and then what happens to the SC firewall? I suspect it burns down. And it looks as if Klobuchar fell short.
4. Which means we could be pretty far along, in a couple of weeks, to a Sanders-Buttigieg race. A key question is whether Buttigieg is strong enough in NH/NV/SC to make it that, or whether he can’t in effect put away Biden.
5. If he can’t, if Biden and Buttigieg are swapping second and third places, then Bloomberg has a chance to dismiss Buttigieg and Biden and spend the run-up to Super Tuesday saying he’s the alternative to Sanders.
6. Who knows? The results could differ from early indications, or there could be a reversal in NH in Warren’s or Biden’s favor based on the debate, new oppo research that emerges, etc
7. But for now, it looks as if Iowa may have set the stage for a Sanders-Buttigieg race, with Bloomberg lurking as the alternative if Buttigieg can’t establish himself as a strong alternative to Sanders—and Warren and Biden desperately trying to save their candidacies in NH.
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