Why is IEA’s fossil CO2 outlook clearly diverging from the high emission scenarios used in climate science and policy? Is it just reduced expectations for coal? We can see some reasons by looking at IEA WEO fossil projections vs. SSP no policy baselines for IPCC AR6 - oil ⬇️ 1/9 
👆 Conversations about the realism of RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 have emphasized how they are projecting a massive expansion in coal demand but these scenarios are also aggressive outlooks for oil - SSP5-8.5 anticipates 70% more oil production by mid-century than today - 2/9
Near-term oil demand growth in SSP5-8.5 is so high that by this year SSP5-8.5 was looking for 25% higher oil production than we’re already seeing - 3/9
The oil demand growth needed to hit 170 million barrels per day by 2050 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario represents a 40% acceleration in the rate we’ve seen over the last 30 years, well above where the IEA says current policies are taking us - 4/9
On coal: SSP baselines foresee as much as 3x growth in coal by mid-century. The SSP3-7.0 baseline projects relatively steady rapid growth in coal. Coal in the 8.5 scenarios accelerates after 2030 as the world decides to make a massive transition to carbon-intense fuels - 5/9
The median SSP coal scenario is 50% higher by mid-century than where the IEA Current Policies Scenario says we’re heading. Because coal is so carbon-intensive, the gap between the IEA Current Policies Scenario and the SSP median scenario is significant - 6/9
Projections for natural gas also play a role. SSP5-8.5 expects much more natural gas than the older RCP8.5 MESSAGE scenario did. However, the median SSP scenario is well aligned with IEA CPS - 7/9
Overall, *median* SSP baseline no climate policy oil and gas outlooks well aligned through mid-century with IEA CPS, but median coal in the SSP baseline scenarios still quite extreme; high emission scenarios way out of line on oil, coal and gas - 8/9
Summary: The high emission AR5 and forthcoming AR6 no climate policy scenarios analyzed here expect rapid fossil growth overall - a substantial discontinuity from the world IEA sees developing. Extreme coal not the only reason RCP8.5 emissions look increasingly implausible - 9/9
