Thread by @JoeriRogelj

THREAD: In a new study in @nature we present a way to avoid the bias that burdens future generations and the risky strategies that current #climate change mitigation pathways suffer from.

A #climatetwitter explainer

#Fridays4Future #ClimateStrike #ParisAgreement

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Existing #ClimateChange scenarios focus on reaching a target in 2100

but by doing so weirdly suggest that the best way to achieve a #climate target is to delay action first, miss it over the next decades, and then to try to make up for it later

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This puts put a disproportionate burden on future generations, who:
-will suffer higher #climate impacts in their lives
-are burdened with later cleaning up the mess by actively pulling #CO2 out of the air

This strategy is very risky and can be avoided

#Fridays4Future
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We suggest to resolve this unfair bias by focussing on:
1. Reaching #netzero #CO2 to halt warming
2. Limiting the #carbonbudget until netzero keeping warming as low as possible
3. Keeping emissions afterwards at or below #netzero to stabilize or maybe reverse warming

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This new scenario logic addresses some of the intergenerational fairness and sustainability issues that plague other mitigation scenarios

(for example, those developed with the current SSP-RCP framework to which our new logic provides an update).

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Our new scenarios logic forces researchers to explicitly address questions of intergenerational equity

It also makes our future reliance on global net negative emissions an explicit choice and not something that magically emerges when only aiming for a target in 2100

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All problems regarding negative emissions are not automatically resolved

Here, our scenario logic allows us to explore ways to maximize synergies with all #SDGs by varying (or eliminating) the use of specific technologies while firmly achieving a specific #climate goal

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Finally, with our new scenario logic we also show that investments or #CarbonTax for reaching a #ParisAgreement compatible world have to focus on the next few decades in which a transition to #netzero transition is made.

Thereafter, ...

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In a low-carbon world in which the world has managed the transition to #netzero or even net negative, energy investments are indistinguishable of those that we would consider in a catastrophic high-emission world.

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Want to know more about how our new scenario logic avoids putting an undue burden on younger generations?

I also wrote a guest post @CarbonBrief : carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…

And here's a link to the original @nature research paper rdcu.be/bRnIS

#ClimateAction
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Interested to hear your views
@DetlefvanVuuren @tavoni_massimo @KevinClimate @Oliver_Geden @jessicadjewell @CelineGuivarch

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