The Economist’s polling with YouGov finds that on the eve of the Iowa Caucus, Sanders is only winning 41% of the voters who cast ballots for him in the 2016 primary nationally
A big weakness for Sanders is that he’s only polling at 9% among 2016 Clinton primary voters, who make up about half of Democrats
Another way of saying this is that Sander’s base is made up of roughly 70% of people who voted for him last time and 30% who voted for someone else.
Biden’s voters are even more lopsided, about 85% Clinton voters/15% someone else.
Warren’s are the most balanced.
Biden’s voters are even more lopsided, about 85% Clinton voters/15% someone else.
Warren’s are the most balanced.
The final piece of the puzzle here is 2016 primary non-voters. When included, the percentages change to:
Sanders: 52% Sanders, 24% Clinton, 24% non-voters
Biden: 74% Clinton, 15% non-voters, 10% Sanders
Warren: 53% Clinton, 26% Sanders, 24% non-voters
Sanders: 52% Sanders, 24% Clinton, 24% non-voters
Biden: 74% Clinton, 15% non-voters, 10% Sanders
Warren: 53% Clinton, 26% Sanders, 24% non-voters
Seems significant to his narratives that the largest group of Yang voters is 2016 primary non-voters
