Good morning Hong Kong 🇭🇰 & Asia!!! 🤗🤗🤗
Daily update of #coronaviruschina :
Confirmed case up 15% to 28,018, which is a decline of infection rate from 19% of the previous day.
Death rose to 563, up 15% from the previous day & the same rate.
Recovered rose to 1,153, down to 29% from the previous day rate of 29%
Confirmed case up 15% to 28,018, which is a decline of infection rate from 19% of the previous day.
Death rose to 563, up 15% from the previous day & the same rate.
Recovered rose to 1,153, down to 29% from the previous day rate of 29%
Sorry should be down to 29% from 41% for recovered 🤦🏻♀️🤦🏻♀️🤦🏻♀️!!!
Forecast from 2 days ago not so bad!!! I expected 28,217 & actual was 28,018!!
Btw, China said it got a vaccine (UK too) but the WHO poured cold water on it.
Key is that to have a vaccine, u need to do clinical trials. Would u want to try untested medicine? Prolly not. So we got a pretty infectious disease w/ likely lower mortality than SARs but that still
Key is that to have a vaccine, u need to do clinical trials. Would u want to try untested medicine? Prolly not. So we got a pretty infectious disease w/ likely lower mortality than SARs but that still
means that just b/c something has a low mortality hit ratio doesn't mean it is LESS DEADLY. Think of things that have a high mortality but low infection rate, u then don't get as many dead people. Btw, people don't need to die for a disease to have an impact. U can be out of work
Meaning, unproductive. Also if something is highly infectious, people would still be scared. Remember that getting a flu, especially a severe one, is not something u want & would want to avoid, esp if u're already sick or old or very young.
So the economic impact still large.
So the economic impact still large.
The pt here that the AVOIDANCE of being infected is what we're trying to measure here - as that means economic impact & that means impact on asset prices, from commodity to say Apple, Nike, or Tesla stocks.
So if people are sick/avoid being sick by staying home, we got a problem
So if people are sick/avoid being sick by staying home, we got a problem
That is the pt of these updates is to see whether there are signs of fewer infection & what that means in terms of the resumption of normal activities (going to school, work, factories, travel, fun & social, see houses to buy) vs being scared & staying home & buying masks etc.
Seems like I have to wait longer for the new Ipad Pro as tech supply chain disrupted. Workers are supposed to return next wk but many are supposed to be under quarantine if they went to another province for 7 days & from Wuhan 14 days!
Next wk is key!
ft.com/content/223451…
Next wk is key!
ft.com/content/223451…
Hard choices for for leaders of China as they are both costly in different ways:
Meaning, if u don't resume economic activities, then u got all sorts of problems from not just transport to retail sales to manufacturing & real estate. That said, if infection rates spike then that means the closures will then have to happen & impact longer.
Not an easy choice!
Not an easy choice!
OK, I get people commenting this everyday, "Trinh, markets are up, who cares." Unless u always buy low & sell high, let's look at 10-yr of investment in USD (local currency roughly same).
SPX, if 10 yrs ago =100 then today is 299
SCHOMP if 2010=100 then now 85!
It's volatile!
SPX, if 10 yrs ago =100 then today is 299
SCHOMP if 2010=100 then now 85!
It's volatile!
