Good questions @davidallengreen... I'll have a go.
The big problem is that we still don't know what our relationship with the EU and the wider world is going to be from 2021. The answers must depend on a) what it is; and b) how it is (perceived to be) going. 1/6
The big problem is that we still don't know what our relationship with the EU and the wider world is going to be from 2021. The answers must depend on a) what it is; and b) how it is (perceived to be) going. 1/6
The fundamental choice is between remaining within the EU's regulatory orbit (standards and infrastructure), and breaking those links and replacing them with... something else.
Johnson seems set to choose the latter option. 2/6
Johnson seems set to choose the latter option. 2/6
Let's assume he does. In which case, the case for rejoining the EU must depend on making the case that things would be different, and better, if we had decided to remain closer to the EU's orbit. We'll see how easy it is to make that case. 3/6
Second, and assuming a case for remaining within the EU's orbit, the question arises as to whether EU membership would be a better alternative than an association agreement of some sort. 4/6
Again assuming that Johnson chooses a sharp rupture, any association agreement would have to be built from scratch. The UK would need to decide which bits of EU membership it did not want. Customs union, single market, free movement, defence cooperation, etc. 5/6
And depending on that, the choice would be between membership, and an alternative bespoke association agreement. I'd choose the former... but then I've never been convinced by any of the arguments for 'leave'. 6/6
Perhaps worth adding that this will not, imv, be a quick process. It will take time for opinions to shift. And, in choosing between an association agreement or membership, we need to take account of the interests of the EU.
