I do not expect an agreement to materialize over the weekend, but there will be discussions of eastern Libyan stakeholders' demands that would need to be met to reopen the terminals.
Diplomatic pressure over the past 48 hours has raised expectations that a deal could happen soon, but there has been no apparent breakthrough so far.
For real progress to be made, sources say the eastern stakeholders' minimum demands will need to be met -- which are expected to be part of the discussions in Cairo according to the UN.
The demands are: i) moving NOC operations to Benghazi; ii) replacing the current head of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Sadiq al-Kabir; and iii) changing the oil revenue payment mechanism to divert cash away from the CBL account in Malta and into an escrow account.
To find a solution to the current stand-off and bring the terminal closures to an end, a permeant cease-fire is the first prerequisite. It would have to be followed by concessions that are large enough to allow Khalifa Haftar and eastern leaders to save face in the eyes of locals
With US embassy warning of imminent increase in fighting + huge mobilization by external parties, it’s difficult to see Berlin agreement enacted on the ground. Other factors that would change my assessment and hasten the return of Libyan barrels to the market include:
1. Sustained external pressure, especially by the United States, to reopen the terminals. But to get Washington on board at current oil prices would require pressure from Haftar's Arab backers -- the UAE and Egypt - which doesn’t appear forthcoming
Internal pressure due to the blackouts of electricity and product shortages. There are early signs suggesting that access to energy is becoming a problem in eastern Libya, which might compel Haftar to push for the reopening of the oil terminals.
But the current shortfall appears to be minor and problems will likely take at least another few weeks before turning into a significant headache. In short Libyan oil terminals will likely remain offline for longer.
