Thread by @HasdrubalBarca2

Thread on #Libya(Λιβύη):
Turkey’s decision to intervene directly in support of Libya’s UN recognised goverment(GNA)comes in reaction to covert military support offered by Ankara’s Arab rivals and Russia to the Libyan Army led by General Khalifa Haftar.Since April 2019 Libyan Army

aided by a small portion of non-Libyan fighters,military experts and foreign airpower have been carrying out a military operation in across the country battling armed militias islamists and rebel to the state tribes.Their goal is to unite the country.The UN-backed Government of

National Accord (GNA) in #Tripoli and its Libyan allies along with Turkey and Qatar consider this an outright aggression and an attempt to subvert the political order in Libya and impose a return to military rule.Turkey is suppling from April drones ammo armaments(BMC) and mercs

Fighting in Tripoli has been is more or less a stalemate with the Libyan army advancing slowly into the capital. GNA seeing that was losing requested direct military support from 🇺🇸 🇬🇧🇮🇹🇩🇿and 🇹🇷. All refused but Turkey accepted impossing harsh terms on Serraj who agreed.The terms

were for Libya(GNA) to pay merceneries all expenses (salaries relocation housing arms etc),to ratify new oil deals,to buy new armamements,to allow Ankara to build military bases in Libyan land and to change sea borders creating havoc in the area.This deal in reality creates a

puppet state for Turkey in the area of North Africa.On 2 January Ankara authorised the military intervention in Libya aimig to help Tripoli thus preventing the collapse of its puppet the GNA headed by Prime Minister Serraj.
Turkish officials hope its military presence will

rebalance power on the ground and at worse create the conditions for a ceasefire thus winning the deal it cut with Serraj.The maritime deal which creates an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is key to Ankara’s ambition to block an East Med gas pipeline to Europe and disrupt an axis

that includes its rival enemies Egypt,Greece and Israel along with some EU countries that seek to bypass Turkey that wants to control all energy access to Europe from Russia and Asia.
Would Turkey have intervened so boldly without first securing the maritime deal?Clearly the

the answer is no.Turkish officials post deal showed no sign that they were preoccupied with the military setbacks that Tripoli forces were incurring.They were instead supportive of the Berlin peace process. In order to press Tripoli into submission they had slowed military help

to Tripoli in September.Turkish deployment are only a few army officers technicians and advisors & some new equipment jamming devices have arrived. The gap in army deployment is closed by the usage of Syrian merceneries with Ankara deploying vassal Syrian rebel groups and

individuals in exchange for Turkish citizenship and money payed by Serraj and Qatar of course.Tripoli denies their presence officially.Nevertheless pro GNA personalities remain confident that Turkish military support will make a strategic and military difference. They are wrong!

Turkey tried to use military bases and ports by neighboring states like Tunisia and Algeria.Both efforts despite giving huge promises failled miserable.Without air support Ankara's minions have at best hope to hold their area create a deadlock thus allowing Ankara to cash in its

deal and to save themselves inside a new goverment.
Turkey's intervention inflamed public rhetoric against Serraj with some neutral tribes and towns switching sides to support the Libyan Army seeing Turks as occupiers.On 7 January Libyan army won the coastal city of Sirte in

central Libya from the GNA. The GNA forces from Misrata that were stationed there withdrew with little resistance as locals hated them and their local allies changed sides.The capture of Sirte is the new serious military success by Libyan forces since the summer of 2019.

The Turkish build up of GNA forces and the takeover of Sirte highlight two major strategic changes:
1)Libyan Army is now moving to take or press Misrata while GNA was preparing for a counterattack.
2)Libyan Army attack will continue to Tripoli reinforced by locals who ingnite

a Jihad against Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions.
Meanwhile the UN has renewed calls for de escalation and for foreign powers to convene in Berlin hosted talks that it has been pursuing since September last year.
Russian President Putin and Turkish counterpart Erdogan announced

a joint call for a ceasefire in Libya starting this Sunday at 00:00 as well as their support for political negotiations.
Calls for this ceasefire is out of reality :
Were there consultations with Libyan partners?No.
Libyan Army refused to implement it.

Is the ceasefire unconditional or will it follow the withdrawal of forces? Nothing was discussed.
Are other regional backers or players on board?
No!
Only GNA accepted it due to weakness while they are still confident that Turkey will not sell them out.
They see Ankara as the

only players that remains supportive of their demands which is to withdraw the Libyan Αrmy to the pre-April positions and be excluded from political talks!!!
An outragous demand both political cause it excludes the parliament placed now on Tobrouk and military as the Army will

abolish huge gains it did in West South and Central Libya.
In any case they vow to fight on.
In apparent defiance Libyan Army declared a no-fly zone over Western Libya,including Tripoli airport Mitiga and a sea blockade to Misrata and al khoms. It continues to advance to Tripoli.

Egypt one of the Libyan Army backers reacted coldly to the Turkish-Russian announcement.
Cairo and Moscow have close military ties but 🇪🇬 has its own set of geopolitical and counterterrorism priorities in 🇱🇾. It is unlikely to remain passive in the face of a TU-RU deal cause in

reality it goes against its interests and even may face existant issues if the Libyan Army doesnt win.
Turkey-Russian call for a ceasefire is more a statement of intent rather than a deal that is certain to materialise.Why make it?Cause both want to be seen as the real players in

the future of a after war Libya.Closer cooperation between Moscow & Ankara enables both to scale down their involvement and avoid further escalation and casualties.
To sum up Libya remains in a state of uncertainty that only a Libyan army victory can solve the matter.The risk of

escalation remains real, as intersecting geopolitical interests collide,backers increase their efforts for both sides(Turkey and Egypt px.)and the chances of persuading the parties to go to the negotiating table remain extremely low.
End #Thread !