Short thread on #GE2020
There will be lots of opinion pieces in the aftermath of a seismic weekend in Irish politics. What does it mean? What happens next? Who will lead the next Dáil?
So I guess we should address those points one by one.
There will be lots of opinion pieces in the aftermath of a seismic weekend in Irish politics. What does it mean? What happens next? Who will lead the next Dáil?
So I guess we should address those points one by one.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been able, during the 70s and 80s,to count on 80+% of electoral support between them.
This has been declining steadily, until this weekend, when their joint support amounted to less than 45%.
Change has been coming for a long time, so writing off
This has been declining steadily, until this weekend, when their joint support amounted to less than 45%.
Change has been coming for a long time, so writing off
the surge in SF support as just another populist protest vote is well wide of the mark. The move to the left is there to see, not only in the rise of Sinn Féin, but also improved performances from the Social Democrats, Sol-PBP, Greens and non-affiliated Independents.
So what happens next?
Lots and lots of talking between the parties, to see where the common ground lies, and is there enough of it to reach a consensus and agreement to govern.
Which leads to the last point.
And the reality of the situation...
Lots and lots of talking between the parties, to see where the common ground lies, and is there enough of it to reach a consensus and agreement to govern.
Which leads to the last point.
And the reality of the situation...
Mary Lou McDonald has done a fantastic job to get SF where they are today. This could never have been achieved under Gerry Adams.
But brilliant performance aside, & acknowledging Mary Lou holds a strong hand for the coming negotiations, I don't believe she holds the trump card.
But brilliant performance aside, & acknowledging Mary Lou holds a strong hand for the coming negotiations, I don't believe she holds the trump card.
That card is held by Michéal Martin. Here's why.
Mary Lou would have to be some kind of negotiating ninja to persuade ALL the smaller parties to join her, but more to the point, almost all of the Independents (some of whom have long ties to FF and FG). The numbers don't add up.
Mary Lou would have to be some kind of negotiating ninja to persuade ALL the smaller parties to join her, but more to the point, almost all of the Independents (some of whom have long ties to FF and FG). The numbers don't add up.
Whether we get a new government formed in the next few weeks depends (IMO) on the following:
Martin has to have a conversation with himself as to which is more important - the nation and the people, or his party and his personal ambition to be Taoiseach.
Martin has to have a conversation with himself as to which is more important - the nation and the people, or his party and his personal ambition to be Taoiseach.
If the former, it would make perfect sense to go into government with SG and maybe the Greens & a few Independents. At least that way, he can mitigate to a degree, the effect of the SF agenda.
Because make no mistake - if no accommodation can be reached, there will be another GE.
Because make no mistake - if no accommodation can be reached, there will be another GE.
*SF, not SG.
Which would be no bad thing for SF. They could run another couple of dozen candidates and maybe pick up an extra 10 or 12 seats, taking FF and FG out of the picture altogether.
So what's it to be Michéal...?
End/
So what's it to be Michéal...?
End/
