Thread by @notabattlechick

The excellent Professor Fred Gellert, Prof of Science and Technology at @ArmyWarCollege for the @Strategy_Bridge Carlisle Strategy Session.

The history of warfare and the history of technology are closely linked.

Ex: the history of armored warfare - tech changes warfare and warfare influences technological development

Dev of tanks requires advances in metallurgy, propulsion, ammunition, mobility, engines, etc.

Much of the tech is borrowed from agricultural machinery.

But it could have gone another way.

Remember between the wars, states are making lots of decisions about what the future of war will look like and how to spend their money on defense - PLUS social, doctrinal, intellectual and cultural factors matter too.

A tech advantage is good, but not sufficient or indefinite

As soon as you deploy a technological advance in war, the race is I. - people catch in, form defenses, etc.

and the rate of technological change seems to be speeding up.

So, what do you need to make the most of a tech advantage?
1. Funding
2. Doctrine for use
3. Champion

Early DOD money finds LOTS of stuff from the 40s to the Oughts
Nuclear weapons, computing, lasers, satellites, stealth, GPS, the Internet, networks, robotics...

So where are we now?
Robots and swarming systems

(Personal note: swarming robots and drones terrify me.)

To make this work, you need lots of sensors and data, and they could have drastic effects on the battlefield.

Lots of testing going on - in the air and on the ground.

DARPA Robotics Challenge (2015) - tasks for humanitarian relief. This is really complicated stuff. A Korean company won - their robot did all 8 tasks.

It’s more complicated the more autonomous you want it to be.

Next tech: electrical power
Power generation is a BIG DEAL
For vehicles, this is new and important tech

@RiceUniversity - development of a micro-supercapacitor
@Tesla - Model U Pick Up Truck
@USArmy - Army Research Lab - Aluminum Power for hydrogen generation

Advances in machine learning are helping scientists come up with new things to try.

3. Additive Manufacturing
How do you layer materials at a microscopic level to create complex stuff? 3-D printing may reduce the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of manufactured products.

What can this be used for?

3D printed polymer blocks to atop bullets - AND it doesn’t destroy the material beyond the impact.

Valves and pipes

Replacement parts

Lattice structures

On demand/just in time

Now for the scary stuff.
4. Biotech

CRISPR (gene editing) - Navy Research Lab - changing DNA of bacteria to detect contamination and to glow 🦠

3D printing of organs
Stem cell skin spay (for burn victims, etc)
Next-gen DNA sequencing
Drug development and testing - AI is great for studying base pairs and proteins, etc., it just seeps things up...

This could be good.

Also SKYNET and TERMINATIR. shit.

5. Hypersonics (greater than Mach 5)
Mobility and maneuver is the key question - how do you steer stuff at Mach 5? This is a hard problem. Even testing this is difficult - only a handful of places where you can even do this.

(Personal note 2: I should have PUD more attention in Physics.)

Army goal: battery of hypersonic missiles by 2023.

That’s not far away.

Talk about heat and acceleration and deceleration.
Bob Bradford: Clausewitz would call it Friction

Russia 🇷🇺 said they have a functioning hypersonic missile. That’s probably believable enough...no idea, though, about maneuverability, etc.

Hypersonic weapons have the possibility to change strategic calculations.

Question: why is maneuverability so important? Isn’t the speed the thing?
Answer: firing at moving targets, arms race/defensive; strategic offset

If it’s a question of priorities and resources, that’s a different question.

Comment: USAF announced today that they’re dropping one of their hypersonic programs
airforcemag.com/air-force-canc…

Army/Navy/army all have different tasks and priorities for development.

There’s some nerdy DM talk happening, with a solid dose of SL. Come to #CSS, and prep for comps!

Diversion to talk about strategy, political objectives, defining threats and the environment, and the intellectual problem of strategy.

BLUF: you need both people like me and people like Fred to our all of this together.

6. Quantum Computing
(Holy hell, I do not understand this at all.)
1. faster speeds, smaller spaces
2. Solving new problems
3. Working with AI, large data sets, etc.

What are the challenges that we see?

1. @DeptofDefense S&T budget - not keeping up with inflation, but DOD has beefed up $$ in other areas - moving money around/reallocation

Nuclear modernization
Space
Missile Defense
Hypersonics
AI
5G

2. What’s the threat? How do we understand China in this environment?

China is IN this game - big time. They are interested in many kf@the same things we are.

Final thoughts:
1. Need for National and DOD vision for Tech
2. Need a national-Level plan from the Executive
3. Support for National Defense Education Program, DOD-wide S/T program; Manufacturing Engineering Education Program

4. This is multidisciplinary and will require TEAMS of people to solve problems. Funding will be complicated.
5. Need to get better/more adept with big data
6. How does DOD $ and investment incentivize private-sector development?