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Here is the basic fact of where Sanders is in the race. He has won NH by a narrow 2pts, can claim a partial (total vote) win in IA primarily due to no results being reported. These were in 2 overwhelmingly white states. IOW: these were weaker than expected performances. HOWEVER,
due to the now trifurcation + of the moderate wing of the party Sanders' small plurality of the high 20s is becoming the winning margin & until & unless that changes down the stretch, he will likely become the nominee. And it is quite likely by the time where mods realize they
have this problem enough to overcome egos, it will be far too late. This is exactly what happened to the mod faction in 2016 (although it should be noted, Trump did NOT face the troubles down the stretch Sanders *may* face w voters of color, which as I show, are the majority of
the party in many of the states. He came out of the SC primary (Winner Take All) on fire. What we may end up seeing here is a classic collective action problem among the mainstream faction: they would benefit from a cooperation agreement where they put forward 1 & the rest
withdraw from the race but egos (and the massive time & energy investments each candidate & team puts in) make this unlikely particularly bc we have never seen so much equal & robust competition. All 3 (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Bloomberg) can taste the presidency now.
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