Thread by @pmdfoster

So why did @JulianSmithUK get the sack today? And what might it portend? Some thoughts 1/Thread

@JulianSmithUK First the 'why?' which isn't an unreasonable question given that only a month ago he was jointly responsible, along with @simoncoveney for getting the Nothern Ireland executive up and running. @BorisJohnson
old paper @spectator lauded him for this /2

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectator/status/1220108577123307523

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator It is a testament to Smith that BOTH @LeoVaradkar AND @DUPleader Arlene Foster paid tribute to him today. Says a lot that Sec of State NI can get plaudits from both of those. "Always welcome in Fermanagh" says Arlene. I like that. /3

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1227896226084986880?s=20

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Because despite his commitments to a young family Smith clearly gave everything to the Northern Ireland job at a time when the British government clearly didn't give a monkey's whatever about the province. It spent most of last year trying to repartition the place..../4

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Which bring us to the 'why?' Smith got sacked, given all those plaudits from both sides of the border and the commuity divide - go and see the tributes beneath his resignation annoucment here - pretty special /5

https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1227885175956234241?s=20

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Smith was chopped because, ultimately, he refused to get with the crazier bits of the programme.

So when in September 2019 Cummings and @BorisJohnson decided to prorogue Parliament without making ANY provision for 'direct rule' to stabilise NI in the event of a 'no deal'.../6

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Smith said 'no' - in public and in private to Johnson, as the proroguation court case would reveal - the DIDN'T EVEN ASK HIM about the plan, and what it would mean for NI whose civil service would have been totally lost in face of 'no deal' /7

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader It's worth reading this to get a sense of extraordinarily cavalier approach of Johnson and co to the province and the lives and livelihoods of those British citizens who live there. /8

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Then in early October 2019 the more extreme #brexit wing said that UK should withhold security co-operation from EU to force them to cut a deal - tho understand MI5/6 said 'no', unless they got it in writing from PM. THat letter never came. And Smith? /9

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader Well, Smith - responsible for security in NI where PSNI and Garda need to share security details on terror threats on both sides of border all the time - called that out too: "unacceptable" he said. /10

https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1181524619959963648?s=20

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader So why was @JulianSmithUK fired?

Well, you can take your pick. Disloyalty or a dangerous excess of integrity, depending on your point of view. /11

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader As someone who was frequently in cabinet in the May/Johnson era put it to me today: "there were always massive ‘elephants in the room’, but Julian was always the one who pointed right at them." No marks for truth-telling in this game, old boy. /12

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader So what does this shabby defenestration portend?

Good question, but recall that the coming negotiations are not JUST about the future - they are also about implementing the Irish Protocol. /13

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader That means slapping a border in the Irish Sea which - and no-one has really dwelt on this - will be bad for Irish business. Remember the @hmtreasury slides that leaked during the election?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1202960167354216454?s=20

/14

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury Now, as we know over last few weeks @BorisJohnson has said there will be "emphatically" no checks - when @MichelBarnier has been equally clear there will be checks - economic pain or not. /15

theguardian.com/politics/2020/…

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury @MichelBarnier Soon after @StefaanDeRynck came to London to warn against "backsliding" on the 'frontstop' - warning of "sanctions" if the UK didn't live up to its commitment in the Withdrawal Agreemetn. /16

inews.co.uk/news/politics/…

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury @MichelBarnier @StefaanDeRynck Now, I don't know exactly what the UK position is going to be on the creation of the Irish 'frontstop' - but my guess, on current form, is that there will be a gap between UK and EU approaches. As one UK insider put it, "don't expect us to goldplate it" /17

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury @MichelBarnier @StefaanDeRynck If that - perish the thought - is the plan, then my guess (see above) is that having Smith around is probably more trouble than you'd need - and indeed that would apply also if you were heading for an "Australia" type deal. /18

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury @MichelBarnier @StefaanDeRynck Last thing you need is some serious, integrity-laden minister pointing at the elephant that says "but Australian doesn't have a deal"...not sure, at this point, this is the kind of operation that needs people like that getting under its feet. /19

@JulianSmithUK @simoncoveney @BorisJohnson @spectator @LeoVaradkar @DUPleader @hmtreasury @MichelBarnier @StefaanDeRynck And so revenge is taken. NI is worse off, suspect in the long run we're all worse off. But props to Julian Smith, a minister (see testimonials beneath his resignation Tweet) who was lauded by both sides. And in NI, not sure there is any higher praise. 20/ENDS