Thread by @pmdfoster

So. What could it mean that UK team 'seeks to evade Irish Sea' checks in the new #Brexit Irish 'frontstop', as @ShippersUnbound
reports today - and why is UK Govt picking this fight with EU?
1/Thread

@h/t @DavidHenigUK
for the pix :)
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK First the checks - recall that @BorisJohnson binned the 'backstop' and agreed a Northern Ireland 'frontstop' that leaves NI following EU rules on Customs, VAT and State Aid - even if it is technically in UK customs territory and can gain 'benefits' of trade deals /2

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson He did this to avoid a new north-south trade border coming back into Northern Ireland. BUT if there aren't going to be checks/border posts in NI, then the checks will need to be somewhere these - viz 'in the Irish Sea'. /3

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson In the Revised Protocol the UK has agreed that any goods deemed "at risk" of leaking into the EU single market (ie going south into the Republic of Ireland) will require checks pretty much as if it was going to EU. /4

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson That would mean a broad range of checks (likely at UK ports) for compliance with EU regulations, whether any tariffs are due OR (if UK has done a 'zero tariff' deal with EU, if the good meets the 'rules of origin' threshold to qualify for no tariff - see this table/5

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson So. Questions? What do those checks look like? What proportion of goods will be designated 'at risk' and subject to checks? Where will they be carried out? The answers (not yet determined) will be critical for both business and, maybe, the state of the Union itself /6

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson As I reported a while back, EU sources have suggested that as many as 90 or 95 per cent of goods going from GB to NI will face checks - the UK reckons much less, or it will argue that a light-tough approach will be essential to make the Protocol work. And it has a point. /7

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson The UK side points to the 'best endeavours' clause that puts onus on both sides to "facilitate trade" and reduce checks at NI ports "to the extent possible". /8

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson They will also recall @MichelBarnier plans for 'dedramatising' any Irish Sea border that were put in place to try and sell the original NI-only backstop - online declarations, in-market surveillance etc /9

irishtimes.com/news/world/eur…

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Because the risk of a full-fat border is huge - to the integrity of the UK internal market, for NI consumers (higher prices, business disruption) and maybe for the Union itself. See this HM Treasury slide. Does the EU want to risk all this? /10

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Given live animal checks are aleady done at the Port of Larne in NI (along with others on timber and some restricted producst)...the question is how light touch can the inward checks be at UK ports (Holyhead, Liverpool, Stranraer) etc be?

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Others like @BastidonPauline @DavidHenigUK @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe will know how far it is possible to reduce checks if you were to 'dedramatise' the Irish Sea border, whether, even you could get to 'no infrastructure', as some on UK side seem to be hinting /12

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe The EU side is NOT taking this lightly - and as @Mij_Europe notes, these kinds of briefings are rattling cages in Brussels where a recent meeting (see slides) saw EU member states making clear that Protocol needed to be operational by Dec 31 2020 - not 'wait n see' /13

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe So a benign interpretation of 'no checks' in that headline falls at the very generous end of 'dedramatisation' - and puts down a marker for the coming talks with EU, that UK interpretation of 'best endeavours' clause (Art 6) is very broad. /14

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe That doesn't mean 'no checks' - the EU's customs code must apply in full - but the UK could try and ask for minimisations of some kind.

That said...the EU side reckson the revised protocol is very clear. /15

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe That @MichelBarnier de-dramatisations meant checks in ports away from border (revised protocol says limited checks at NI ports) AND that UK negotiatorys were "very clear what they signed up to in October" (including David Frost). /16

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe EU officials are clear: that means full checks, whatever the old arguments for "dedramatisations" - the DUP well understood what the Prototol portended, and that's why they walked. /17

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe The reality is that the Protocol IS hugely divisive and dividing.

It even, potentially, allows for EU to enforce state aid rules on GB-based companies if they impact NI economy.

It also sets up huge issues if GB diverges on VAT regime. /18

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe As I reported, the sacking of @JulianSmithUK - and @ShippersUnbound sources confirm similar re Geoffrey Cox - would seem to incdicate UK govt is aiming at dangerous territory, and needs more 'compliant' ministers. /19

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1228089767000231936

@ShippersUnbound @DavidHenigUK @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @donnyc1975 @SamuelMarcLowe @Mij_Europe @JulianSmithUK In summary, no-one really looked under the hodd of the the revised Irish Protocol last October - they were too busy crowing.

But @BorisJohnson did sign the deal (the one @theresa_may said no PM ever could) and a Treaty is a treaty. Mishandled, this could get v messy. ENDS