Forecast - half dozen reasons to be pessimistic but also many reasons to be optimistic about global containment of #SARSCoV2 #COVID19: thread 🧵 below. thinkglobalhealth.org/article/whats-…
2) 📌The huge number of reported infections in China, which undoubtedly is a substantial underestimate of the actual number of infections
📌Spread to provinces all over China
📌Exportation so far to two dozen other countries;
📌Spread to provinces all over China
📌Exportation so far to two dozen other countries;
3) 📌Disease models that suggest that the number of infections recognized in other countries may only be a small fraction of the actual number of people who left China infectious with the virus;
4) 📌Ease of spread w/in hospitals, taxis, families, malls, possibly related to infectiousness of patients who aren’t severely ill, and cruise 🚢 (including that of 454 people testing positive on Princess 🛳, 189 were asymptomatic, which could facilitate widespread transmission)
5) 📌Recognition of cases with no known link to other cases in Singapore despite that country having one of the best health care systems in the world.
6) On the other hand, all is not yet lost, and the benefits from containment would be enormous. half a dozen reasons not to give up hope:
📌The extraordinary efforts of China to contain the virus could succeed—in some provinces, reported cases appear to be decreasing;
📌The extraordinary efforts of China to contain the virus could succeed—in some provinces, reported cases appear to be decreasing;
7) 📌Availability of rapid PCR testing enables confirmation of disease and implementation of isolation and control measures; 📌genetic testing doesn’t suggest further evolution of the virus yet;
8) 📌 Testing of thousands of other people at risk in the United States and Singapore, among other places, has not identified other patients, suggesting that there may not be as large a reservoir of undiagnosed patients with mild disease as feared;
9)📌Apparent success of efforts to contain the virus in countries that have had imported cases
📌SARS/MERS, similar coronaviruses, were contained once means of spread were well understood
📌Decreased travel out of affected areas has greatly reduced the potential for exposures.
📌SARS/MERS, similar coronaviruses, were contained once means of spread were well understood
📌Decreased travel out of affected areas has greatly reduced the potential for exposures.
10) footnote: the above thread posts are quotes from the article. I agree with some of them, but I agree with more of the pessimistic points more than the optimistic notes because the overwhelming trend and data is suggesting the forecast is poor containment with likely pandemic.
