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Julian Castro, introducing Warren here in Las Vegas, explicitly saying that Warren holding one billionaire (Bloomberg) accountable in the debate proves she'll hold another billionaire, Trump, accountable also.
As compared to 2 weeks ago in New Hampshire, when the rather explicit theme of the Warren rally I saw was that she was an underdog and needed to persist, the theme this time in Nevada is very much more along the lines of "we can win".
"If anyone doubts whether I can fight Trump on the debate stage..." Warren says, then alludes to what she did to Bloomberg. Then says if there was a betting line in Las Vegas, it'd give a 50:50 chance that Trump would get scared after watching the video and refuse to debate her.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
At a Steyer event at a chicken restaurant in Dorchester County, SC and he comes across as... not an A+ politician but reasonably natural on the stump. It's hard not to think about the contrast to Bloomberg.
Notably sparse applause when he brings up his support for reparations before the older, mostly (maybe 75-80%) white audience.
He also comes across, at least rhetorically, as a bit more of a populist than you'd think, though with plenty of technocratic notes. People assume he's mostly taking his vote from Biden but I'd expect he's also causing some problems for Warren here.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
UPDATED Super Tuesday win probabilities, where you can see the impact of Biden's good polling in SC & other Southern states. Bernie looks as good as ever outside the South.

CA—Sanders 86%, Biden 9%
TX—Biden 45%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 9%
NC—Biden 45%, Sanders 35%, Bloomberg 19%
VA—Sanders 44%, Biden 38%, Bloomberg 16%
MA—Sanders 53%, Warren 28%, Biden 11%, Buttigieg 5%
MN—Klobuchar 53%, Sanders 40%
CO—Sanders 78%, Warren 9%, Biden 8%
TN—Biden 50%, Sanders 29%, Bloomberg 17%
AL—Biden 68%, Bloomberg 16%, Sanders 13%
OK—Biden 37%, Bloomberg 30%, Sanders 28%
AR—Biden 31%, Sanders 30%, Bloomberg 29%, Buttigieg 8%
UT—Sanders 86%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 63%, Biden 11%, Bloomberg 10%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 8%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 35%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 9%
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
With events (primaries, debates, etc.) piling on top of one another in rapid succession it's not super easy to characterize the trajectory of the polls right now.

Some questions I have:
BIDEN no longer seems to be falling. But is he rising? And if so, is it a broad-based rise, or concentrated among specific groups/in certain states?

BLOOMBERG clearly got the wind knocked out of his sails. Has he steadied himself? If not, is it a slow deflation or a crash?
With SANDERS, the long-term trajectory is obviously positive. But you can squint and make several different cases (rising, falling, steady) for the short term. And there's still a gap between his national polls (better) and state polls (less good). What's going on there?
Read 6 tweets

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Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
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snarke
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Welcome to today's #Trump #ImpeachmentTrial thread (potentially one of a few)! I've been playing around with tags a little in other tweets this morning but for now, I'm going to stick with the two I've used here. That may change later on, though. Follow/mute at will!
Today is going to be procedural stuff. The Senate will have to approve the (completely BS) rules proposed by McConnell. Dems will offer amendments, of course, but since a simple majority rules I don't have a lot of hope any of the amendments will pass. #Trump #ImpeachmentTrial
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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
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