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Here's a collection of short pieces on topical #COVIDー19 issues
Reporting this epidemic: blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/h…

Will summer extinguish COVID-19? docs.google.com/document/d/17m…
3. On the population risk of transmission (my 40-70% comment in context): threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373… (updated 25 February)

4. On modeling the epidemic: basic principles ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-… (with Rebecca Kahn)

5. On countermeasures: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425….
6. On the possibility that the virus will mutate (tl;dr) it can and is, but that is not scary (by colleagues but I fully endorse) ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/mutation-adapt…
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
In places with many known & suspected COVID cases it is getting really intense. Efforts to do contact tracing are overwhelming even the top health departments nytimes.com/2020/03/09/nyr…. At this stage it is wrongheaded to pour exponentially growing resources into this strategy.
It is unsustainable (effort grows with epidemic size). We need measures that while painful for all will slow social contact - cancelling public gatherings, paid sick leave, working from home, and the like. Social distancing is the general name for these interventions.
And we need to stop feeling sheepish about it and just realize that some places (Italy, Iran) are in crisis, and some are very likely in the days before crisis, a crisis that will be less bad if we slow down the virus. #flattenthecurve to reduce peak demand on health care
Read 15 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Just heard Boston's St. Patrick's parade is on for Sunday. A million expected people at a big gathering is not what we need as a pandemic is starting. Philadelphia tried this in 1918 smithsonianmag.com/history/philad…
This was not the only (maybe not even the main) reason Philadelphia suffered a high peak and large epidemic of flu in 1918, but the hands-off approach it symbolized was. pnas.org/content/104/18…
St. Patrick's parade needs to be cancelled. @marty_walsh
@CharlieBakerMA @wutrain @BOSCityCouncil @Kim_Janey @mfflaherty @juliaforboston @LydiaMEdwards @edforboston @CampbellforD4 @RicardoNArroyo @MattOMalley @KenzieBok @Liz4AB
Read 4 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
A short (I hope) thread about countermeasures
As the world's view of the #COVID19 spread turns from containable outbreak to pandemic, the clear next question is what countermeasures can be used. Categorizing these can be helpful.
1. Temporary vs. long-term/permanent. Most things we can do to slow the virus's spread -- isolation, quarantine, social distancing, canceling public gatherings, treating cases with antivirals if these are proven -- are temporary -- once let up, transmission can resurge.
Read 26 tweets

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UwU 🚑 uwu 🚑 UwU 🚑 uwu
@HanafubukuOh
COVID-19, a thread. 1/n

Since the governments clamping down on releasing information about the coronavirus outbreak, I thought I'd put out an info thread on what's going on, and how this 'controlling of messaging' has potential to make things worse. nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/…
Many calling this outbreak unexpected but the WHO identified SARS-related coronaviruses as a global health threat in 2016. CDC Protocols were implemented as a response to Ebola, to prevent future outbreaks but Trump spent the last few years defunding them blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/aft…
COVID-19 shares about 80% of it's genome with SARS, while having a 96% relation to a SARS-related coronavirus found in bats. COVID-19 appears to be a recombinant of multiple known coronaviruses. 100s of SARS-r cov strains exist, found most often in bats.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32060789
Read 10 tweets
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Robᵉʳᵗ Graham
@ErrataRob
I keep seeing this article go around. It's the height of silliness, spending more effort on political attacks against "preppers" than discussion what you should do to prepare.
blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/p…
There's a good chance we'll end up like Wuhan with most of the population stuck at home for weeks, even a couple of months. So do the obvious thing and stock up on some canned food and medical supplies you can't do without, and read: ready.gov/kit
That's the practical persons guide to preparing. The SciAm op-ed was the "Young Comrades Guide to Socially Responsible Preparedness", the same suggestions, but colored by politics.
Read 12 tweets
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Micah Rosenbloom
@micahjay1
Covid-19 is top of mind for most people in the startup community this week. Thankfully, full-blown panic hasn’t set in, but founders should prepare so they’re not caught flat-footed.

Here are some things we're talking to our founders about:
1/13
First off, take steps to prepare personally, and encourage your co-workers to do so as well. This @SciAm post by @zeynep is one of the best, level-headed overviews I’ve seen:

blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/p…

Once that's sorted, here are some more startup-focused thoughts:
2/13
This may become an economic and psychological event. Companies should be prepared for customers and investors to sit on cash during a period of uncertainty. Remember the freeze immediately post 9/11.

Here are some specific recommendations we've discussed internally:
3/13
Read 13 tweets
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Samuel V. Scarpino
@svscarpino
That's a tough question, but, if it helps, here's how I'm currently thinking about #COVID19 in the US.
To begin, it's always prudent to prepare, but not panic. I'd point you to @cmyeaton, @HelenBranswell, and @mlipsitch who are the rational experts (w/ consistent Twitter presences) that I look to for all things epidemic preparedness and this US Gov. site: ready.gov/pandemic
Regarding impacts, there's scant evidence that travel restrictions are feasible ways to prevent spread. That has not stopped governments from imposing them. Given the irrationality of our current admin, anything seems possible ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… & journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
Read 19 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Unsurprisingly, more information was withheld by the Chinese government. COVID-19 had reached Guangdong by January 4th. Wuhan's lockdown only began on the 23rd. This is a probelm far bigger than Hubei and China.
Alternate reality: Theranos Ends Pandemic
It's so sad to read these stories of China's state of unrest. Trust is degraded. This is not a society that will return to normal with a snap of fingers and bans lifted. China is damaged, could be for years, & we're not even near the end of this epidemic.
Read 2850 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
This question has only deepened for Chinese and the world in recent days, with the tragedy only growing day after day, and Wuhan's whistleblower now fallen: where is Xi Jinping? time.com/5778994/corona…
Read 2810 tweets

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