That's a tough question, but, if it helps, here's how I'm currently thinking about #COVID19 in the US.
To begin, it's always prudent to prepare, but not panic. I'd point you to @cmyeaton, @HelenBranswell, and @mlipsitch who are the rational experts (w/ consistent Twitter presences) that I look to for all things epidemic preparedness and this US Gov. site: ready.gov/pandemic
Regarding impacts, there's scant evidence that travel restrictions are feasible ways to prevent spread. That has not stopped governments from imposing them. Given the irrationality of our current admin, anything seems possible ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… & journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
However, isolating and caring for sick individuals, paired with contact tracing and monitoring, can stop local outbreaks. This is exactly how public health organizations stopped SARS in 2003, Ebola in 2014, & the many outbreaks we never hear about. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
There are also plenty of things you can do to lower your risk (your family's too) and slow down the rate of transmission. See the following for examples.
And always heed travel recommendations. The CDC currently recommends that elderly individuals & those with chronic medical conditions consider postponing non-essential travel to some places w/ #COVID19 outbreaks & everyone hold off travel to mainland China cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Now, there's still a lot we don't know about this outbreak that--depending on what we learn in the coming weeks--could shift the risks higher or lower. First, one of the reasons SARS '03 & Ebola '14 were stopped had to do with how transmission worked.
The short, short version is that preventing super spreading events in healthcare settings and at funerals drastically reduced the probability of sustained transmission. For diseases like influenza in 2009, super spreading was far less important, which can make control harder.
To date, no contact tracing data have been made publicly available nor have robust estimates of the risk of super spreading events been published. We are mostly reliant on the similarity of #COVID19 to SARS '03, see @C_Althaus' work eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
The amount of super spreading in #COVID19 matters quite a bit for whether contact tracing can control the outbreak. For more information, I'd point you to @rozeggo cmmid.github.io/ncov/isolation…
Here are other super spreading papers. Caveat: they make assumptions (the one I'm on too) & there's reason to doubt how much we can learn about epidemics from super spreading alone. sciencedirect.com/science/articl… nature.com/articles/natur… eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… arxiv.org/abs/2002.04004
We also still don't know how important mild infections are in the transmission process. Obviously, the risk of wide-spread transmission depends on the full spectrum of disease AND our estimates of #COVID19 severity & case fatality rate depend on these too. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
For a more in-depth discussion of how to interpret current and future estimates of the #COVID19 case fatality rate, I'd point you to @AdamJKucharski
We still don't know enough about the risk factors for severe disease & mortality. This includes the bias towards older individuals. Flu (along with other respiratory pathogens) are driven by children & can be serious in both the young & elderly. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19696313-optim…
However, the pattern of severe disease and bias towards older individuals we see with #COVID19 appears similar to what occurred during SARS in 2003. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Ok, wrapping up, by far the biggest #COVID19 risk in the US (and most other countries) is stigma, panic, and fear. Currently, the CDC says, "The risk of getting coronavirus in the U.S. is low." I fully agree with that statement. cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Nevertheless, we need to prepare for the possibility that sustained transmission will happen in the US. For that, I'd point you to this thread by @mlipsitch threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425… and this one by @cmyeaton
I've tried to do my best to be transparent about what I have good evidence for and what I'm speculating on. It's critical for all of us to remember that, "We have a common responsibility to protect public health." and spreading fake news & panic only hurts blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/h…
