This could be the single dumbest Tweet (other than one of Trump’s Tweets) about #covid19 that I’ve seen. Does this guy even have clue one about what 2% mortality looks like? If only 5% of the US population were infected (~16.5M), 2% case fatality could mean 330K dead. 1/ 🙄
That doesn’t even count the 14% severe cases (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure), which would utterly overwhelm our hospitals. 2/ cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
Assuming the case fatality rate actually does turn out to be 2%, no, 98% won’t necessarily be fine. 5% could end up on ventilators for varying lengths of time, for instance. There will be sequelae. 3/
Yes, I know trust the deaths won’t be randomly distributed. It’ll be the elderly and those with chronic illness who’ll have a higher mortality rate than the young and healthy. But it’ll still be a lot of deaths. Don’t the old and medically frail count? 4/
Think of it this way. The case fatality rate for the influenza pandemic of 1918 was estimated to be “only” around 2-3% by @WHO. How’d that turn out? After all, 97-98% of those who got the Spanish flu were “fine.” 🙄 5/
To conclude, yes, I agree that we shouldn’t panic, but there’s a difference between not panicking and turning into a modern-day Pangloss, oblivious to the potential devastation that even a disease with “just 2% mortality” might cause. 6/6
