Thread by @firefoxx66

"If the virus is everywhere, what's the point of preparedness?"

On neither why continuing about your day as usual OR buying every can in the shop are helpful responses to #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Coronavirus #SARSCoV19 :
(1/n)

A main component of preparedness is about *putting slack in the system*. This manifests in a few ways here:
- Public mentality
- Supply chains & medical systems
- Your personal life

(2/n)

1 - Govts/health agencies preparing the public allows the public to prepare themselves - physically & mentally. The 2nd is a big one.
A slowly increasing case # with early discussion of cancelling schools/events & possible disruption means less panic if these later happen (3/n)

Repeats of 'everything is fine' followed by big jumps in case # & sudden announcement of closures & disruptions not prev discussed makes people feel the situation is out of control, that authorities don't understand what's happening --- that it's time to panic. (4/n)

This leads to panic buying, irrational behaviour, mistrust of the advice that's being given ("why did it change so suddenly before?").

Slack in the 'public mental state' helps people feel informed, that they understand situation & have time to prepare (5/n)

2- Preparing for a serious illness outbreak also means freeing up space in hospitals by doing things like cancelling elective procedures. This frees up beds, staff, and supplies for incoming disease cases.
It also gives hospitals enough time to order more supplies/equipment (3/n)

Same for pharmacies. Asking people to refill repeat prescriptions now reduces strain later by giving a few weeks when pharmacies can focus on increased demand from the outbreak illness #SARSCoV2. Same for medicine supply chains. (4/n)

By advising people to ensure they have a small stock of supplies at home to last a week, we put slack in food supply. Ex: If fewer truck drivers are working, reorganisation is needed for store restocking. If people can last a few days w/o needing to shop, it's much easier. (5/n)

Important to say this is also why panic buying isn't helpful. Pick up a little extra now in every shop you do & this is easily absorbed by the system. Buy every can of beans in 1 go & you've stressed the system early, before there was any need. Stay calm, stay rational. (6/n)

3 - Finally being prepared buys you slack in your own systems. If supply chains are disrupted temporarily, if quarantine or other measures come into effect, you know you have enough medicine & supplies to let the systems adjust. (7/n)

This can be as simple as just knowing you don't have to go to the shop when panic buying is taking place - when full of many people & quickly emptying of most food. Stressful, unhelpful (limited food), & unwise. You can wait until restock arrives (8/n)

If quarantine or other measures happen, this will also require a few days of adjustment to coordinate when people can shop/how deliveries happen/how shopworkers are scheduled, etc.
Avoiding the confusion at the start helps you & helps the system adjust. (9/n)

In ending I just want to clarify that experts aren't telling you to stock up on essentials bc they think you're going to run out of food & society is going to collapse. It's because few days of panic buying & high demands cause more panic & stress systems unnecessarily (10/n)

So, preparedness isn't about doing nothing, but also about not overreacting. It's about doing your part to put the *slack in our systems* so that short disruptions are smooth as possible, can absorb extra load, & resources remain available for those most in need. #COVID19 (11/n)