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MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COVID-19 IN KENYA

Thread
Q: What happens when an #infected (I) person comes to your house ?
A: : Everyone will be totally #Susceptible (S)
Q: How many people will the #infected person infect (#Exposed) (E)?
....1/n
#SEIR #rstats #coronavirusinKenya
What will determine the infection rate?
The basic reproduction number; Ro:
average no of cases (secondary infections) generated by a single (I) (primary infection) introduced into a (S)
To sustain an epidemic :
Ro <1 (No epidemic)
Ro =1 (sustained)
Ro>1 (outbreak/Epidemic)
Ro for #COVID19 =3.58 (means that about 4 secondary infections will result from introducing an infectious person (I) into susceptible (S) population. A successful infectious disease control program aims to bring the Ro to Ro <1, this determines the vaccination coverage.
Read 9 tweets
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 #SITREP

CASE FATALITY RATE HOLDS STEADY...
2/28/2020 at 10:30PM ET

Confirmed Cases: 85,176 ⬆️📈
Deaths: 2,919⬆️📈
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.41% ↔️
(NO CHANGE)

60 cases in US (+8) ⬆️📈
Read 3 tweets
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 FATALITY RATE JUMPS up again!
2/25/2020 at 10:30AM ET

Confirmed Cases: 80,346 ⬆️📈
Deaths: 2,705⬆️📈
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.37% ⬆️📈
(up from 3.29%)

52 cases in US
CDC data points: I am not sure why the CDC would use a ✝️ as an asterisk to report positive cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan. I’m certain there were other symbols they could have used.
Read 7 tweets
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 FATALITY RATE JUMPS up again! 2/24/2020
06:30AM ET

Confirmed Cases: 79,517 ⬆️📈
Deaths: 2,626 ⬆️📈
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.29% ⬆️📈
(up from 3.12%)
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 FATALITY RATE JUMPS up again! 2/24/2020
5:00PM ET

Confirmed Cases: 79,553⬆️📈
Deaths: 2,628⬆️📈
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.30%⬆️📈
(up from 3.12%)
Read 10 tweets
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 FATALITY RATE JUMPS up again! 2/23/2020

Confirmed Cases: 78,891
Deaths: 2,467
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.12% ⬆️ (up from 3.03%)
When does the CDC hit the panic button? At 5% CFR? 10%? 20%? 40%?

The trend is constantly shifting UP.

The numbers don’t lie (well, China does but that is a different story)

Watch the trends, not the shiny objects.
1000 new cases in 24 hours.

But also over 100+ new fatalities.

There is your 10%. Actually 12%. But that isn’t a true CFR, but it IS another metric to look at.

New fatalities increasing each day compared to new cases. Why? What changed?
Read 6 tweets
Coronavirus / #COVID2019 FATALITY RATE JUMPS up again! 2/22/2020

Confirmed Cases: 77,923
Deaths: 2,362
Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.03% ⬆️ Image
Prior Case Fatality Rate (CFR) calculations:
https://t.co/7gjtBl1gGS
Read 8 tweets
Coronavirus #COVID -19 appears to be jumping at a rate of 117 new cases per hour. Monitoring closely as this seems to indicate a faster rate of infection than was previously reported. Could be an anomaly. The deaths did not jump however... so that’s good.
Read 9 tweets
🚨 PANDEMIC ADVISORY: #Coronavius Interim #SITREP: February 10, 2020 🚨

Cases: 40,787
Fatal: 910 (surpassed SARS)
Recovered: 3,578

Actual cases: Not fully known

WHO updated site to include 2019-nCoV as a potential pandemic 3 years ago (???)
Epidemic bar graphs showing what appears to be an increase of cases outside of China as well as the risk factors which include international travel.

Hence why those of us with experience were demanding travel bans on DAY 1!

New guidance offered from WHO on infection control.
Read 18 tweets
🚨 PANDEMIC ALERT 🚨

I stopped providing daily updates on the #coronavirus as tracking it has become increasingly difficult. That said, I will update as information changes.

One such change is this: The CDC has now specifically included coronavirus into its pandemic pages.
Confirmed cases of coronavirus as displayed by John Hopkins. It should be noted that information coming out of China has included multiple reports of deaths in the THOUSANDS. These are not confirmed as most are censored off social media and no neutral investigators are there.
Information from the WHO has now STOPPED including “suspected cases” as they have previously. It is not clear why they have stopped reporting such data.
Read 9 tweets
Interim #SITREP for 2/3/2020 #coronavirus #2019nCoV

Travel Restrictions: US federal order prohibits travelers from China in the past 14 days from entering US with exceptions:

- Family of US residents can enter but will be monitored

- Restriction only for mainland;Hong Kong ok
This begs the question: Can a person from within mainland China and near Wuhan somehow get to Hong Kong or Wacau and THEN travel to US and be exempt from travel restrictions?

By CDC reply it seems so. Not sure how this exemption helps.
CDC / FAA / TSA / DOD: Total of 11 airports will have strict medical evaluations:

- JFK
- Newark
- O’Hare
- San Francisco
- SEATAC
- Honolulu (Daniel K Inouye)
- LAX
- ATL
- Dulles
- Dallas/Ft Worth
- Deteoit
Read 10 tweets
🚨 INTERIM #SITREP: February 2, 2020
#coronavirus #2019nCoV #SuperBowl2020 #SuperBowlLIV

CDC issues highest level of public health alert....
CDC Teleconference transcript released:

- Additional planes from China rumored to be scheduled to US; CDC will not confirm if quarantine will be issued on those passengers

- 1 quarantined person in California tried to leave March Air Base

CDC issues flowchart on how to determine risk of person presenting with possible #coronavirus infection
Read 11 tweets
⚠️ BREAKING: World Health Organization ( @WHO ) declares #coronavirus #2019nCoV a PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY 🚨

Interim #SITREP
With 12,167 suspected cases, the WHO is facing some difficult decisions. As of this moment (15:00 ET) there are no trade restrictions in place. However, Russia has now closed border with China, as have Mongolia and North Korea.
CDC in Atlanta has confirmed the first person-to-person #coronavirus transmission in the United States.

If you have been following my threads, you may recall one of the experts I cited a few days ago saying “all it takes is one case to slip through the cracks.”
Read 8 tweets
⚠️#SITREP: JANUARY 29, 2020 9PM #Coronavirus #2019nCoV update

For this update I am referring to the WHO / CDC / BNO data.

Cases: 7,816 Confirmed /
9,239 suspected
Deaths: 170

The numbers published by WHO have significant lag-time. Using @BNONews for real-time
Not too much has changed other than we see yet again another large surge in infected / suspected cases and deaths. It’s important to note that this large surge has mostly happened over the last 7-10 days or so.
Early this morning US personnel were evacuated from Wuhan to Anchorage, Alaska and ultimately to March Air Reserve Bass in California after a last minute diversion was called in. The CDC has these individuals sequestered & monitoring for signs of active illness #coronavirus
Read 5 tweets
⚠️#SITREP: JANUARY 28, 2020 9PM #Coronavirus #2019nCoV update

For this update I am referring to the WHO / CDC / BNO data.

Cases: 6,062 Confirmed /
6,973 suspected
Deaths: 106

The numbers published by WHO have significant lag-time. Using @BNONews for real-time
The number of nations affected remains officially at 15. There are numerous suspected cases all over the globe and as such we just don’t have a very accurate grasp of how extensive or not #coronavirus outbreak is right now.
Recommendations and focus of public health officials remains unchanged from yesterday’s #SITREP. Universal Precautions remains the policy and no upgrade to droplet precautions outside of immediate contamination zones are being recommended.
Read 12 tweets
⚠️#SITREP: JANUARY 27, 2020 9PM #Coronavirus #2019nCoV update

For this update I am referring to the WHO / CDC / BNO data.

Cases: 4,463 Confirmed / 5,794 suspected
Deaths: 106

The numbers published by WHO have significant lag-time. Using @BNONews for real-time numbers.
@BNONews Because the WHO only updates their reports a few times per day, the confirmed / suspected cases will be significantly lower than the real-time data of @BNODesk

The numbers will coincide when looking back in time however.

As anticipated, numbers jumping exponentially!
@BNONews @BNODesk We have seen strict enforcement of border security along China boundaries. Epicenter remains mostly in the Hubei province, including Wuhan, China.

- Armed Quarantine continues.
- LEVEL 3 Travel Advisory Issued (State Department)
- Standard Precautions remain recommended actions
Read 11 tweets
⚠️JANUARY 26, 2020: #coronavirus #SITREP - Global Pandemic Risk HIGH

- 2,014 confirmed cases
- 56 deaths (believed to be much higher)
- ARMED QUARANTINE; China 🇨🇳
- Unknown amount of virus carriers
- 11 countries affected so far
January 13, 2020 appears to be where #2019nCoV took its turn towards becoming epidemic / pandemic threat.

Steep increase in cases outside of China after 1/13/2020
As of today, it’s suspected that the incubation period is between 2-10 days. This means there are likely thousands who may have been exposed and are still not symptomatic. This is still a guess however; this virus isn’t the same as other coronavirus strains but it’s similar.
Read 10 tweets
After the heroic sacrifices of valiant & ordinary citizens, the leadership of @_AfricanUnion is about to sit in idle complicity as the soldiers in the Transitional Military Council (TMC) launch a violent & bloody #SudanCounterRevolution. #Africans everywhere shd weigh in
Here is the #SitRep: Since the end of last month, the soliders in the TMC have been launched a rolling #InternetShutdown on Khartoum with the design to facilitate a #SudanCounterRevolution by constraining & ultimately cutting off the ability of the protests to co-ordinate
At the beginning of the week, on Monday, 3 June, about 05:00hrs Khartoum time, the TMC sent 1000s of armed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soldiers, the Janjaweed militia & men in police uniforms using RSF trucks to disperse the sit-in.
#SudanCounterRevolution
Read 22 tweets

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