Thread by @fawfulfan

THREAD: Republicans have to be really, really hoping that the Supreme Court dismisses the Texas ACA lawsuit.

If they decide the whole law has to be eliminated, several things could happen next depending on who wins the 2020 election, but none of it is good for the GOP.

Let's back up and analyze what's at stake here.

Texas and several other states are arguing since the GOP tax bill set the mandate to $0, it's no longer a tax and therefore unconstitutional, and the whole rest of the law is unseverable and therefore should be struck down too.

That's EVERYTHING. Health insurance exchanges, essential benefits, efficiency reforms to Medicare, Medicaid expansion, all of it.

The Texas law is saying that the ENTIRE LAW needs to be thrown out on a technicality. Even parts that have nothing to do with the mandate.

Even most conservative legal scholars think this lawsuit is ridiculous. Including some lawyers who brought the earlier ACA suits.

Congress clearly said the mandate is severable, because they severed it in 2017. Plus, the ACA still contains many taxes other than the mandate.

But let's put aside the question of SHOULD the law be struck down, because this Supreme Court is very receptive to right-wing hacks asking them to overturn their own precedent.

Let's look at, what WOULD happen if the ACA is struck down?

Well, the case would come down next spring. Millions would lose coverage overnight and millions more would lose their jobs. Medicare and Medicaid would implode. Market chaos for insurers.

And Congress would be under IMMEDIATE pressure to pass a fix that will reverse this damage.

It would actually be very easy to reverse the Supreme Court's ruling legislatively.

The House could pass a one-page bill that changes the mandate from $0 to $1. Boom, it's a tax again, and the whole law is valid once more.

That's the easy part. The odds are that Democrats will still have the House next spring — the House hasn't changed parties during a presidential cycle since 1952, and retirements and redistricting have already made it tough for the GOP to win back many seats.

The really interesting question is, who is in the White House and who holds the Senate majority?

These will change how the scenario plays out — but every one of these scenarios ends badly for Republicans.

Let's first assume that Trump lost the 2020 election and Democrats flipped control of the Senate. They have a legislative and executive trifecta.

In that case, it's easy. They can pass the fix within a week. It can be done as a budget bill, so the GOP can't filibuster it.

And that will look pretty bad for the GOP. They singlehandedly blew up the economy and the health care of working people, and Democrats singlehandedly put it back on track. It might even spark fresh pressure to pack the courts and rein in right-wing judicial activism.

Now let's look at divided control scenario A — when the ruling comes down, Dems have the White House and House, but Mitch McConnell is still Senate Majority Leader.

Now things get a little more complicated.

Mitch McConnell will try to capitalize on this situation by forcing Democrats to accept a bill that restores parts of the ACA but severely guts other parts of it — think Graham-Cassidy.

Dems will still pass their one-line fix in the House, but he'll ignore it.

But this strategy won't work in the long run.

The Dem president will keep calling on the Senate to pass the simple fix that will restore everything to the way it was. People will riot in the street. Mitch will eventually cave for fear of Senate gains in 2022 being blunted.

Now let's look at the third scenario: everything in 2021 is as it is now. Trump is still president, Mitch is still Senate Leader, Pelosi is still Speaker.

This is by far the most disastrous scenario for Republicans.

Remember what a catastrophe the government shutdown of 2019 was for Republicans? They took all the blame as public services crumbled, the Senate GOP revolted, and Mitch finally gave Pelosi everything she wanted?

Imagine that, but ten times worse, and one year before a midterm.

A midterm, BTW, where Republicans are defending Senate seats in FL, IA, OH, NC, PA, and WI against an unpopular incumbent president with majority of at most 52-48.

I'm not totally sure Mitch even bothers proposing a compromise bill in that scenario. He might cave immediately.

It's pretty clear that the scenario that hurts the GOP least is that the Supreme Court rules against Texas and lets the ACA stand.

But Dems should hope for it too. Because even if we benefit electorally from a bad SCOTUS ruling, thousands could die and millions lose their jobs.