We are all dealing with the impact of the Corona virus and I though I’d share how, as a scientist, I think about the risk and my actions in response. First, I try to stay with the data. As data comes in, answers will change. That’s good science. 1/5
2/5 I’m watching the mortality rate - how likely are you to die if you get sick? Flu kills 1 in 1000. Current corona estimate is 1 in 50. This may really be lower because mildly sick people are not being tested. But right now, the rate looks worse than flu.
3/5 I’m watching the transmission rate: Still unknown and it depends on management. Quarantines are trying to lower this number. It looks higher than flu because no vaccine/no history = no one has immunity. It looks likely that community transmission will spread.
4/5 I watching the age data. It looks like the mortality rate is higher for older people - and I’m not the kid I used to be! So the corona virus is more of risk than the flu, but still not bad in California. I might give up some travel, but I’m still going to New Zealand.
5/8 How to prepare for pandemic? Just like earthquakes - do the things I should have been doing anyway. Be more careful about washing hands, not touching my face, sanitizing surfaces. Be ready for disruption to supply chain - keep staples stocked & don’t run low on toilet paper
