Some late night #COVIDー19 thoughts. But first, IANAP, so this is not medical advice.
Epidemiologic models suggest a doubling of cases every week or so in the US. That puts us at crazy numbers of patients by late May.
The impact on our economy will be stunning. /1
Epidemiologic models suggest a doubling of cases every week or so in the US. That puts us at crazy numbers of patients by late May.
The impact on our economy will be stunning. /1
Most travel and hospitality business will see revenue plunge by at least 20%. That will be enough to put more than a few out of business, and 100s of thousands of workers in those industries will be laid off or have hours cut back. /2
I think a decent ballpark estimate of monthly unemployment by the end of the 2nd quarter (June 30) is 5-6%. It was 3.6% in January.
I think we'll be in recession by the end of the 2020. We may not know it by then, but final numbers (released in 2021) will likely confirm. /3
I think we'll be in recession by the end of the 2020. We may not know it by then, but final numbers (released in 2021) will likely confirm. /3
Many will die. Lots of businesses, schools, churches, etc. will temporarily close to prevent mass gatherings.
Global supply chains will be disrupted. It may become a challenge to get food and household staples at the grocery. /4
Global supply chains will be disrupted. It may become a challenge to get food and household staples at the grocery. /4
I hope I'm wrong...I really do. But smart people, experts I trust, seem to be in agreement that this is going to quite bad.
Buckle up. And be kind to each other. We don't need bad behavior making it worse than it needs to be. /end
Buckle up. And be kind to each other. We don't need bad behavior making it worse than it needs to be. /end
...going to *be quite bad [sorry]
