Thread by @balajis

I hope it doesn't get here. But if enough Americans die, the federal response may be put under DoD control.

The military has biodefense preparedness plans, can manage quarantines, has continuity-of-leadership plans, and may be the most broadly respected institution in America.

To elaborate on each of these points:

1. DoD biodefense is for natural threats as well. It doesn’t need to be a “bioweapon” — much of the biodefense preparedness would be applicable in either situation. defense.gov/Explore/News/A…

2. Quarantines in the US are already being managed by the US military.

Whether they are being managed well is a separate question (the Solano case *may* have leaked from Travis Air Force Base), but quarantine at scale is military.
apnews.com/8296fc5a288587…

3. Iran is already seeing senior government officials die from the virus.

US civilian leadership does have some continuity-of-government provisions, but it's not really set up for senior people randomly dying.

The military, however, is.
theatlantic.com/international/…

4. Finally, the military is by some measures the most broadly respected national institution in America. pewresearch.org/ft_19-03-21_sc…

Three months ago I'd think the idea of US troops enforcing quarantines in a pandemic was out of a sci-fi movie, a scene from Contagion.

But WSJ reports the Italian military is on standby to do exactly that. archive.is/T42UH#selectio…

In summary, if enough US deaths occur, the public mood may shift to the military as the only entity capable of carrying out the "centralized response".

I hope it doesn't get there. Hope this peters out somehow on its own. But given where Italy is now, it's possible.